FCST: 01/02-03/10 Hint of Snow for NW MO

Edit 0615Z/4: Here are the snowfall totals from several disturbances that moved through the local area over the weekend as reported to the NWS EAX:

EAX reported snowfall totals

OLD BLOG ENTRY: The GFS is hinting at a potential 2" to 4" snowfall Saturday into Sunday.  The NAM takes the snow to the west in central Kansas.  This is a weak disturbance locked up in the NWLY flow and is not going to have a major impact on the local area.  However, it may be enough of a nuisance to impact some weekend travel in the local area.

FCST: 12/30-31/09 FLASH FREEZE--NW MO

An artic front is forecasted to blast through the local area around midnight tonight.  This is going to cause a flash freeze which will create dangerous driving conditions in the NW MO area.  The arctic front should enter the NW corner of MO between 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. and reach the Cameron area by midnight.  The NWS in Pleasant Hill has issued a special weather statement highlighting this dangerous situation.  Visit www.crh.noaa.gov/eax for more information. ~ CS

Frontal position and METARS as of 7:30 p.m. December 30, 2009

FCST: 12/29-30/09 SNOW--NW MO

EDIT: 29/3Z  Snow is moving in from the southwest this evening.  Not expecting much accumulation from this weak disturbance, maybe 1" to 2" tops for the local area.  We have chance of snow during the day Wednesday as well, little to any additional accumulation.  Another chance of snow enters the forecast over the weekend with a chance of light accumulations.  The bigger story comes the weekend after next where a larger storm system is beginning to show up on the models!  Just in time for the SKEW-T / Hodograph class in Cameron, YEAH!


If you are a believer in long wave patterns recurring during a set time frame (my thoughts are 58 to 62 days this year) then it is no suprise we have a chance of snow in the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame.   For more info on long wave patterns visit http://www.lrcweather.com/.

This is not a major storm but enough to produce accumulating snow in the 2" to 4" range for the local area based on current model data.  Here is a look back at the October 29, 2009 storm that moved through our area:

I expect this storm to track to the south and east of the local area due to the position of the southern jet and cold air in place.  There is no doubt the precipitation will be all snow with this system.  It moved through fairly quick in October and dropped between 0.10 and 0.20 of precipiation.  Will the storm track further south and east?  Will the storm slow down this time and procude more precipiation in the local area?  Watch the blog as we track the system toward mid-week! ~ CS

We are also currently working on our new storm chasing media website, http://www.mesoextrememedia.com/.  It is in the development stages and we hope to have it up and fully operational by February 2010.  Check back often as we develop the site!

Blizzard Recap by EAX Staff

Here is a link to the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day Blizzard of 2009.  This page covers the event very well.  The staff at EAX was a great asset and partner during this event.  My hats off to them! ~ CS

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=2009dec2425blizzard

FCST: 12/23-24/09 Snow NW MO and NE KS

EDIT 0530Z/23: The 0Z runs of the NAM and GFS are in and they are much more impressive and bullish with their snow totals.  Steve and I have been looking at the models all evening trying to figure out our best forecast to put up on the blog.  We are going to stick with 3" to 6" right now, with the heaviest falling late Thursday evening into the overnight hours.  We could locally see some 8" amounts if the ULL tracks as the models suggest.  If the ULL tracks further S and E and the secondary low takes over as the dominant low we could see A LOT more snow locally.  The secondary low that forms over AR intensifies as it moves up along the MO and IL borders.  The pressure gradient also increases dramatically as the ULL's pull off to the north and east.  This pressure gradient tightness will bring strong, gusty winds into the local area which COULD produce near whiteout or blizzard conditions Thursday night!  Please keep abreast of the latest NWS forecasts for watches and warnings as this is a significant storm system!  Currently KEAX has no watches issued, but I anticipate some sort of headline by tomorrow morning as long as the model runs stay consistent and surface/upper air obs are supporting snow/ice crystal formation! ~ CS


WOW, what a storm to watch and try to amateur forecast...this has been a learning experience to say the least....I still see the probability of at least two ULL and a shortwave from the NW impacting our weather over the Christmas holiday.....I do think we will have a dominant low that the others will interact with to give us a winter weather event here locally.......

Forecasted Low Surface Tracks

The storm system has entered the sounding network and the models have had a couple of runs with "real" data to work with"  My current thinking is the ULL is going to track a bit further south and east, which has been my concern all along.  During the winter months it is very difficult to get a low to track as far north as the models have been predicting.  This is due to cold air intrusion and the position of the southern jet stream.  There is some consistency to the models now and they are coming into better agreement.

This being said I believe the heavier snow totals are going to be pulled further south and east than previously forecasted.  I do believe NC KS, SC NE and NW IA are going to see the heaviest snow totals from this storm, some areas may see up to 18" of snow.  My current thought around here is quite a bit less...maybe in the 3" to 6" range.  However, if the QPF is not being overdone by the models we could get quite a bit more.  It all depends on the track of the ULL, the speed of the ULL and if the low intensifies. 

Here are my forecast reasonings:
1000-500 and 850-700 mb freezing line is east of us now earlier than anticipated,
1000-500 mb RH greater than 90% and dry air intrusion remains east of the local area,
Warmest Vertical Temp and 850 mb freeze line is also east of us now,
ULL is tracking to our south and east (not sure how far right now though),
ULL slows down and intensifies as it moves off to the northeast,
Heaviest snow to fall north and west of the track of the ULL,
Long duration snow event is in store.

Timing of the precip:
A cold rain will rapidly change to snow during the late afternoon hours on Thursday.  Snow will continue, moderate at times, during the overnight hours into Friday morning. Heaviest snow should fall between 9 p.m. and midnight.  Strong winds will accompany the snow and we could have whiteout to near blizzard conditions making travel nearly impossible during the overnight hours on Thursday.

More later this evening as I get a chance to look at this evenings model data. ~ CS

FCST: 12/23-25/2009 Winter Wx Event--Central Plains / Upper Midwest

Hmmmmmm.....where is spring at?  This storm has so much potential but just not for the local area!  Sounds like a broken record from the spring of 2009 doesn't it!  Simple facts:

ULL tracks northwest of the local area,
Freeze line stays northwest of the local area until late Thursday;
QPF is unbelievable, literally, for this storm;
We could get some wrap around snow accumulations from the storm late Thursday into Friday,
Possibly a white Christmas with a couple inches on the ground;
It is going to get colder and there will be some decent wind as the storm pulls out to the north and northeast!

Ok...there are my forecast thoughts on the current track of most models!  Now the caveat:  if the ULL track does not follow the model forecasts and shifts a hundred miles or so south we get some decent snows as it will bring the freezing line and heavier precip closer to us!  The storm is entering the sounding network in the Pacific Northwest now.  This will give us some real time data to look at that will solidify the track a "little" bit better.  We are still 3 to 4 days away from this event so all forecasts need to be watched very closely!  The latest model data is filtering in now and I will be looking at it late this evening! ~ CS

FCST: 12/23-25/09 Winter Wx Event--Central Plains

HPC Surface Forecast 12Z December 24, 2009
(Places ULL in SW MO)

HPC Surface Forecast 12Z December 25, 2009

(Places ULL in SE IA)

EDIT 6Z/21: Latest data rolled in earlier this evening and the models are still not coming into "total" agreement. GFS has moved a bit further south than the previous run (back toward earlier runs), while the ECMWF, UKMET and GEM are still farther north and west with their tracks (somewhat consistent). 

Some of the models are slowing the system down and letting it dig in the desert southwest before it kicks out into the plains, making this a late Wednesday night through Christmas event.  A lot of inconsistencies, as has been the case the last few days, to try to pin down a track this early.  You also need to keep in mind this storm system is just entering the sampling network in the Pacific Northwest.

EMCWF Model Forecast valid 12Z December 24, 2009
(Places the ULL in SE KS)

GFS Model Forecast valid 12Z December 24, 2009
(Places the ULL in SE KS / NE OK)

GEM Model Forecast Valid 12Z December 24, 2009
(Places the ULL in SW IA)

Here is a look at some of the past 24 hour GFS run storm track outputs. Pay attention to the storm tracks from the south/southwest (Oklahoma and Arkansas area) as this is our storm:

Once we get some get sampling data on the storm and get closer to the event it is going to be a "little" easier to pin down the track of the upper level low. A secondary low is also showing up on some model runs and trying to phase with the main system as it ejects northeast of the local area. This may leave some lingering snow showers into Saturday. Way to early to talk accumulations and if you see any forecasts it is a "best guess" or wishcasting scenario at best. A freezing rain event is in the back of my mind as well, but not the classical set up for a crippling ice storm due to no cold air at the surface. If we do get ice, it will be light in nature and more of a nuisance to travel than anything. Albeit, it is occurring during the Christmas holiday travel period.

Winter forecasting is always difficult and highly dependent on the track of the upper level low. Now factor a few variable surface parameters into the equation and WOW!  We have no artic or even cold air for that matter in place.  Add in the warm air advection (WAA) with the moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and it really muddies things up.

 The 1000-500mb thickness (540dam), 850mb 0C and Warmest Vertical Temp 0C lines remains north and west of the Cameron (4-county area) for most of this event. If this were to hold true, any frozen precip that falls will be well north and west of the local area leaving us with all liquid precipitation.  The overnight hours would be the only concern for me right now for freezing drizzle / freezing rain as the surface temps drop below freezing and the 850mb temps remain above freezing.

Here is a basic ULL track for us to get heavy snow:  The ULL would need to roughly track near Fort Smith, AR and turn north/northeast and track between Columbia and St. Louis, MO. The more time it takes the ULL to follow this track the more prolonged our snow event will be and the more accumulation we would receive. In addition, the atmospheric column and surface/near surface temps have to be cold enough to support snow.

A lot of stuff to think about and digest for sure!!  More tomorrow after I have the chance to look at some more data and get a chance to look at some surface parameters as the storm is moving inland! ~ CS

FCST: 12/23-25/2009 Winter Wx Event--Central Plains / Svr Storms Gulf Coast States

5 Day surface map forecast--Issued 1843Z/19

EDIT (17Z/20): Several of the computer models are forecasting a more northerly track for this storm system, which would put the heaviest snows across IA, southern MN and into WI.  The ECMWF has been trending this way for a couple of runs now and the GEM and GFS went this way last night.  I still want to see some model consistency from run to run on all of the operational models.  Right now the low tracks through SE KS through Central MO and into SE IA by Thursday morning.  The heaviest snows will fall and north and west of the track of the low.  This is why forecasting winter storms this far out is not wise and not more than a guess based on what one computer model thinks is going to happen.  The data used is only as good as the data entered.  However, one thing to keep in mind is the jet stream is stronger and further south in the winter, so this could impact how far north the track of the ULL will be.  I will be looking at the 18Z data shortly for consistency from run to run.  This may not occur until the storm system comes onto the west coast and we get some good sampling data! 

Forecast thoughts ATTM: I am still thinking precip breaks out late Tuesday into Wednesday and beings as light freezing rain and/or freezing  drizzle (all depening on the thermal profile of the column).  During the day Wednesday I look for the precip to transition to all rain as warm air is advected north.  I do not expect the rain to transition to snow until Wednesday night as cold air is pulled into the system as the system moves by to the north and east.

Some parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley are going to see a lot of snow.  I am watching the 850mb temp line very close as there is a very slim chance this could be a freezing rain event for us, at least during the early periods. 

SWODY4

Severe weather remains a possibility over the Gulf Coast States.  I anticipate severe weather from E. TX to LA to MS during this event.  SPC has it marked for the Day 4 period. ~ CS

Old Discussion

A major winter storm is taking shape, per forecast models, to affect the central plains beginning as early as Tuesday night and lasting through Thursday.  My current thinking is this storm will start off as light rain/snow mix Tuesday night and transition to all snow by Wednesday with a possible long duration snow event for someone in the central plains.  The 12Z/19 GFS paints the heaviest snow totals over Northern MO and Southern IA, however, the models have been very inconsistent and I am not willing to bite the forecasted track just yet.

It is way to early to talk accumulations but someone within 200 miles of our local area is going to have a white Christmas, VERY NICE!  Pay attention to local NWS forecasts as this storm is going to hit during the big holiday travel period.

In addition a severe weather outbreak is possible across east TX, LA and MS during the same time period.  December (winter) severe weather outbreaks are more danagerous than spring as people are more complacent and think severe thunderstorms are not possible!  If you have friends and family in the above described areas please ask them to pay attention to NWS forecasts and local commercial media outlets as this storm system unfolds next week!

In the meantime, I am going to be looking at this more closely this weekend and will post more info by Sunday night!  Have a great weekend!  ~ CS

FCST: 12/7-9/09 Winter Storm--NE KS & NW MO

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill has issued  Winter Storm warning for all of NE KS and NW MO from midnight Tuesday December 8 until 6 a.m. Wednesday December 9.  Snow, moderate to heavy at times, is forecasted to fall beginning at midnight Tuesday and lasting through early Wednesday morning.  Snowfall rates during the peak of the storm may meet or exceed 2" per hour.  In addition, sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with locally higher gusts are expected late Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours.  Whiteout to near blizzard conditions are possible in the warning area.  Travel will become hazardous if not impossible tomorrow afternoon into the overnight hours.

Temperatures are also going to tumble with highs Wednesday only in the teens with wind chills below zero.  Lows Wednesday night will be the coldest of this fall season bottoming our near 0 with wind chill values in the teens below zero.  ~ CS

EDIT: I am a bit concerned that the track of the ULL is going to be a bit further south than initially forecasted.  If this occurs, the heavier snow totals will be in the Cameron and 4 county area.  Will know more later as the new models just started coming in the last few hours. Models are picking up on some drier are being pulled into the system during the day tomorrow....this is common for snow storms in the Midwest...this really limits the snow totals and makes it very hard to forecast accumulations....will see if the models are right on the dry air intrusion as the event unfolds....needless to say a very difficult forecast indeed. ~ CS

FCST: Winter Weather Event 12/8-9/09

Target Area: NW MO and NE KS WInter Wx Event

Forecast Discussion: Stay tuned to the blog as the models are showing a very potent winter storm possible for NW MO and NE KS beginning as early as Monday night and lasting into Wednesday.  The potential looks good ATTM for a significant winter weather event in our local area.

Chase Summary:

NOW: Mid-Level Cyclone on WV Imagery

Fairly nice mid-level cyclone responsible for the nasty weather in NE KS, NW MO and SE NE on the WV imagery!  Nice comma head to the system and sign of a significant winter storm for our area.

No accumulation here in Cameron, but have had bursts of moderate to sometimes heavy wet snow throughout the day.  It fell mostly as rain as the temps were still a bit warm. 

Winter Wx Advisory--11/16-17/2009 ~ NW MO

Winter Wx Advisory in effect from 3 a.m. Monday to 6 a.m. Tuesday for NW MO ~ Dekalb County is on southern end of the advisory area per EAX Advisory.

Snow--Wet and heavy at times accumulating 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts in extreme NE KS and NW MO.

Dekalb County is expected to get a trace to 2"...but as said in an early blog post the track of the ULL is going to be important as is the storms ability to generate its own cold air, which we are currently lacking at the surface (temps in the low to mid 40's at the surface in NE).  Column has saturated nicely, expect warm moist air to continue to be drawn into the system which will cause the heavy wet snow to accumulate rather quickly on grassy surfaces. ~ CS

FCST: 11/16-17/09 NE KS/SE NE/NW MO/SW IA--Snow

POOF...It's gone...this storm is going to be a teaser as it slowly

moves out into the plains.  Oh so close to our first flakes of the season!

HPC Day 2 Composite Probability Forecast

Interesting sounding for KSTJ for tomorrow 8am CST????

The biggest issue as this system pulls out into the plains is the warm surface and lower atmosphere temperatures and warmer, drier air being pulled into the system at the mid levels.  I am expecting just a cold rain over the next few days with possibly a flake or two mixed in, especially during the overnight periods as the column cools.  The warm ground temps are going to limit any snowfall accumulation in our area.  Persons in NE KS could see their first 1" snowfall of the season tonight through Tuesday.  The disclaimer here is this storm is fairly strong and significant for early in the season.  It may be able to develop enough cold air to squeeze out some light to moderate snow during the overnight periods that could give us a dusting.  I will be glad to see it come back around in late December or early January when the temperatures should be colder (only if you are a believer in forecasting based on long waves).  Otherwise, it is going to be a cold, wet and dreary few days as the system takes its time moving out of the plains.  I will be watching:

1) the track of the upper level low (which is forecasted now to pass just south of KC--a few hundred miles either way will make a MAJOR difference on our snow chances);

2) MOS vs actual temp to see where we are surface temp wise, as well as watching the temperature profile of the column;

3) the ability of the levels to saturate and cool as the storm approaches from the SW. ~ CS

FCST: 11/16-17/2009 SNOW NE KS and NW MO

Current (14NOV) Surface Fronts / SLP / 500mb winds

QPF Forecast Sunday-Wednesday

HPC 4" Snowfall Probability (10%) for 6 p.m. Tuesday through 6 p.m. Wednesday

I have been watching the storm system evolving over the intermountain region this weekend.  I am gaining more and more confidence that we may see our first snowflakes of the season Monday night into Wednesday (possibly even our 1st 1" snowfall of the season).  Still concerned about the amount of cold air currently present across the lower Mississippi Valley, but this storm system is pretty potent.  We may be in for a bit of a surprise with this early winter storm.  One thing for certain is the potential for a lot of precipitation is possible.  More info later as I try to dissect the latest model data. ~ CS

For you long rangers look at the forecast models take on next weekends storm.  I am not a believer in long range winter model forecasts (with the exception of the LRC)...but is sure looks interesting for the mid west toward the mid to latter part of next weekend. ~ CS

FCST: 9/30/09 KS/NE

Target Area: NW KS/SW NE

Forecast Discussion: Stay tuned, Myself and Corey will work on a forecast tomorrows setup later tonight.

Steve 11AM
9/29/09

UPDATE: Steve I'm going to make this real quick. Some things that will probably skew my forecast today are the lack of decent chases the rest of '09, really good shear with this system, and a decent last shot to get out there this year. I feel tomorrow maybe nothing more than a big mess so I guess im laying my chips down with this setup.

With that being said, helicities will be maximized near the surface low and warm front. Near Julesburg, CO. Because of time constraints and work this is a no go for us...so we are going to drive to KS, look at the sky, talk on HF and tell lies....just cause we can....if something happens cool....if not good SDS relief until spring of 2010.....our last hurrah!!!!!!

Chase Summary:

Mother Nature--The Teaser!!!!!

Mild and Comfortable for late August

(Click for larger image)

A clear and comfortable weekend is in store for the midwest as high pressure builds and brings north/northwest winds to the region. Temperatures will be in the 70's with only minimal chances of precipitation chances through Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50's to lower 60's. Enjoy the unseasonably cool weather as there will be a warmup in store for late in the week as summer makes one more run. ~~~ CS

NOW: 8-16 Hurricane Bill CAT 3

Hurricane Bill, a category 3 major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale and is forecast to strengthen over the next several days. Bill is currently located at 17.2N and 53.4W. The storm is packing sustained winds of 110 kts and gusts to 125 kts....with a pressure of 952 mb and moving to the west-northwest at 15 kts...forecast models are bringing Bill very close to the eastern seaboard by the upcoming weekend. ~~~ CS

FCST: 8-19-09 MO/IA/KS

Target Area: Southern IA / Northern MO / Eastern KS

Forecast Discussion:

EDIT Tuesday 2315 hrs: Scenario is as before, very complex! Steve and I have looked closely at the latest model runs, satellite and radar images and do not have a good feel on things. The MCS currently over central KS and any residual effects it has over the target area are going to drastically effect tonight's model data. The system has the capability of producing a significant severe weather event close by tomorrow and tomorrow night. One thing is for certain, it is going to rain, and rain a lot. This will not bode well for already swollen creeks, streams and rivers as well as saturated soils (some areas received 10"+ of rain over the weekend! There are several factors we are looking at:

1. Approaching system is very dynamic, nearly spring like and is very capable of producing severe weather;

2. This is 2009 and we cannot count how many systems have been "awesome" looking parameter wise on the day before model runs that did not produce one ounce of severe weather;

3. This is August for goodness sake;

4. We will look closer at the models in the AM to see how well they are handling any on-going convection, as well as radar and satellite data and hopefully be able to pin point things a bit better.

Here are our evening thoughts:

We are eyeing an area triangulated from KSTJ to KTOP to KMCI as a target area. Again, this target is based on this evenings model data and does not take into account any overnight convection data. EHI, CAPE, SRH, STP and may other parameters are maximized in this area ~~~ CS/SP

EDIT Tuesday 1310 hrs: Rather complex scenario is setting up for a possible severe event tomorrow, Wednesday, August 19 across northern MO and southern IA...Steve and I will work on a detailed forecast this evening and share our thoughts on how we think the scenario is going to play out...a lot of parameters to look at and definitely a very difficult forecast ~~~ CS

Chase Summary:

NOW: 8-16 FL (TS Claudette)

Tropical Storm Claudette is currently making landfall on the Florida peninsula. It is located at 25.9N and 85.6W. The storm is packing sustained winds of 45 kts and gusts to 55 kts....a pressure of 1008 mb and moving to the northwest at 14 mph. ...tropical storm warnings are all along the Florida coast from Dixie County to Santa Rosa County (Pensacola)....Claudette is expected to weaken as it makes landfall and moves to the northwest....forecasts indicate it will weaken to a tropical depression with 20 kt winds and eventually dissipate near the MS/AL within the next 48 hours ~~~ CS

FCST 8-16 ~ Southern IA / Northern MO

EDIT: 1636 cdt Weak vorticity minima in central Kansas and main short wave in SE CO is forecasted to move to the east northeast this afternoon into this evening....the cold front is currently in the northwest corner of MO and extends southwestward into Kansas.....the cold front shows up nicely on the KTWX and KICT BR 0.5 deg radar scans....my current area of of interest would be in the area near the "kink" in the cold front and just northeast of the vorticity minima.....for what it is worth and it is August and I am typing this is enough to interest me on a Sunday afternoon ~~~ CS

EDIT: 1130 cdt Subsidence in the wake of the early morning convection has stabilized the atmosphere....the current vis satellite image does not bode well for the sun breaking out and causing enough destabilization in the target area by the peak heating of the afternoon....therefore, the target area described yesterday is a wash....I do expect severe weather in central and southeast Kansas this afternoon where the clouds have cleared...large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat.....heavy rains will also accompany the slow moving cold front and associated convection ~~~ CS

Target Area: Southern IA / Northern MO (Tarkio, MO to Red Oak, IA) Storm mode=multi-cell with possibility of embedded supercells) Primary threat large hail, damaging winds and heavy rain.

Forecast Discussion: Surface low over southern Canada with a slow moving cold front extending into the upper MS Valley is expected to reach the target area by late afternoon through the early evening hours......short wave visible over north central Kansas at 0Z.....diurnal heating ahead of the cold front should be enough to moderately destabilize the atmosphere for a localized severe weather event early on before the cold front overtakes early convection and a linear MCS evolves into the evening and overnight hours with an attendant damaging wind threat...the potential exists for very heavy rainfall into Monday across the target area (with PWV approaching 1.98" per KSTJ sounding and QPF forecasted in the 1 to 1.5" range)....southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front should allow Dp's to reach the low to mid 70's (some model soundings indicate a bullseye of 75 Dp's in NW MO at 0Z) and surface temps to be in the mid to upper 80's...surface winds of 10 kts and are slightly backed at 0Z, 35 to 40 kt bulk shear is also forecast.....CAPE values forecasted to be in the 1500 to 2500 j/kg (with 1600+ CAPE on the KSTJ sounding at 0Z/17) in the target area....DCAPE forecasted near 1300 j/kg...CINH forecasted to be in the -80 j/kg range at 0Z indicative of a fairly strong cap, but I think afternoon heating and forcing associated with the approaching cold front/short wave will erode the cap by later afternoon / early evening (700 mb temps are in the 10 to 12 C range) 0Z/17 KSTJ forecasted sounding values: EHI is 2.2, SRH is 222 0-3km and 203 0-2 km, SWEAT is 380ish, BRN is only 13......more later if my thoughts change ~~~ CS

Chase Summary:

FCST: 8-9-09 NE, IA, MO

Target Area: Nebraska City, NE

Forecast Discussion: At the surface, a stationary front is diagonally situated near KFNB. Ahead of the front, surface temps were close to 90 with dews of low 70's. This will be the focal point for strong to severe storms later this afternoon. 500mb flow of 40knts, 850mb sw flow of 30knts, STP of 3, EHI 8, LCL under 1000. There is a risk of these storms becoming linear very quickly so will have to pick the right storm early before this happens. Keeping this short as Corey Sloan and myself will be leaving here shortly. Will update later as needed.

1230 PM

Chase Summary:

FCST: 8/3 Southern IA / Northern MO

Target Area: Southern IA / Northern MO

Forecast Discussion:

EDIT (11:15 p.m. 8/2/09): I would not be surprised to wake up tomorrow with a moderate risk for northern MO in the SWODY1 SPC forecast strictly based on model parameters......

Overnight forecasted activity, coupled with the potential residual cloud cover, subsidence after the passing of the overnight short wave and warm air aloft moving in afterwards is causing me severe convection forecast issues....will hold off and look at data tomorrow and see if I can get a better handle on things....wind fields, CAPE, Dp's all look ok for a severe event...but I think the CAP is going to be an issue, but it is August......however, it is also 2009.........this could be a sleeper if things play out right......

Chase Summary:

FCST: 7-8-09 WY,MT,ND and SD

Target Area: Buffalo, SD

Forecast Discussion: 500mb winds 50-60knts, backed 850mb winds at 30 knts just to the north, Surface winds will be backed at 20 knts. A warm front will be draped near the ND/SD border with a tight surface low on the MT, SD, WY borders. Dewpoints are forecasted to be 65-70F in the area. 0-3km Helicity will be over 300m2s2 just west of Buffalo. Supercell development with isolated tornados is likely early on in the MT,WY, SD borders with movement to the ENE at 15knts. Will be watching mesoanalysis throughout the day and adjust accordingly.

Steve 830AM MDT

Chase Summary:

FCST: 7/8/09 N. and S. Dakota

Target Area: Steve Polley and Craig Maire have teamed up to chase the Dakota's on Day 2 and Day 3....

Forecast Discussion: Details from the team and I later tonight.....

Chase Summary:

FCST: 7-3-09 KS/NE

Target Area: Grand Island to York, NE (10AM Friday)

Forecast Discussion: UPDATE 10AM 7-3-09 I am still sticking with this target for now. Of course this will probably be adjusted a bit during the day based on mesoanalysis. 500mb flow will be a zonal flow from 30-50knts. This is a mix of the RUC and NAM forecast. A warm front will be on the move from KS moving north to just north of the NE/KS border. This will be the area I will play along and just north of this boundary. Surface winds will be nicely backed in this area as well. Storm motions should be decent with a mainly east movement at 25-30mph. Precipitable water values are 1.5 -2.0 which could promote HP supercell structures. CAPE is forecasted to be 2000-3000 j/kg. EHI in the area of over 6. LCL's under 1000. LI of -7-10 in the area as well. The cap at this time per the 12z runs has become less of a issue but may be just enough to get the instability we are looking for. Storms look to hold off till around 23z as of now. I will be positioning myself in this area by 23z.

Steve 10am

Chase Summary:

FCST: 6-26-09 NE and IA

Target Area: Oneil to Omaha

Forecast Discussion: Looks like a warm front will run east and west through NE into IA. 500mb winds of 30-40 knts over the area. Slightly backing winds at 850mb with nicely backing winds at the surface. At the surface, a warm front will be positioned from SW Nebraska, N. Central NE and back in to E. Central NE. A surface low will be positioned in West Central Kansas. A dryline will be on the move somewhat through this period and will be positioned near Ainsworth and southward to near Grand Island. EHI of 3 is forecast for the area also with. Cap is becoming a bit of a concern as the models are showing cinh of -100-200. Cape is forecasted to be 2500-3009 j/kg, LCL's of 750 or less. IF storms can fire west of this area, there should be good instability for the storms to work with. West and south of the Ainsworth area, 700mb temps are forecast to be 13-15C which is a definite concern as far as the cap goes. I may position myself closer to the Omaha area as these temps are forecast to be closer to 1oc. The forecasted reflectivity also is picking up on the capping inversion. So as of now, I think I will positoin near Omaha and adjust during the day from there based on current mesonanalysis.

Steve 10pm Thursday

Chase Summary:

Tornado! Near Steamboat Rock, Iowa

Target Area:

Forecast Discussion:

Chase Summary: This is a screen cap from my video camera. I didnt get a good still photo of it because I was running the A/C and because of the humidity, the camera was completed fogged over from condensation so lesson learned here. Summary to follow later.

FCST: 6/19/09 MO / IL

SPC SWODY2

EDIT: If any overnight convection occurs over the target area....remnant OFB's will need to be watched closely as well tomorrow......storms have fired over south central NE as I write this blog entry......

Target Area: Target 1-Northern Missouri / Target 2-West Central IL (NAM/GFS blend of 0Z runs)--Corey

Forecast Discussion: Going to keep my thoughts brief tonight as it has been a long day....H5 streak of 60 kts forecast to be along and just north of the US 36 corridor...H7 temps and CINH may be an issue again tomorrow, but think there will be enough forcing to erode any cap that exists by late afternoon/early evening with the advancement of a mid level feature and the cold front and a forecasted developing surface low....surface winds are forecast to be SWLY at 10 kts and every so slightly backed over the target area at 0Z/20......Dp's in the 70's over most of the target area....with temps in the 80's...do not think Tdd's will be an issue with surface LCL's forecast to be 250 to 500m....wind profiles are adequate for rotating supercells with bulk shear in the 50kt range....models differ in CAPE values a tad over target #1 (went with a blend of 2000 J/kg) but target #2 is comparable with 3000J/kg...Helicity values are best over NW and North Central MO at 0Z......hopefully storms will fire in front of the advancing cold front and remain discrete early on in the event before they are over run....storm motions are roughly from 280-290 at 30 kts....not bad for NW MO as far as road options go....but anything past US 65 and it gets ugly....I am expecting a linear mess by mid evening as the cold front overtakes any early convection....and yes more rain with PWV forecasted to be in the 1 to 1.5 inch range with locally higher amounts forecasted....

Primary Threats: Large Hail and Damaging Winds with an isolated tornado threat with any storms that fire early....

Chase Summary:

FCST: 6-18-09 IA

Target Area: Initial Staging area I 35/US30 in IA

Forecast Discussion: H5 streak of 70knts is forecast to enter the area by 0z. EHI values, STP, 0-3 km SRH are maximized in this area. Im keeping this short and sweet as I need to be on the road for the area. Will be wanting to position myself north of the warm front and watch for any OFB's that have formed. My thoughts are that the storms will initiate NW of here and move east of I 35 near 0z. Chris, Evan and myself will be streaming later today at www.stormchaselive.com and www.severestudios.com

Steve
10AM

Chase Summary:

FCST: 6/15/09 KS

Target Area: Initial target of Great Bend KS to Salina KS

STEVE: I will be positioning myself near Great Bend late this morning. This is where EHI is highest, forecasted RUC cape of near 6000 j/kg, this will also be very close to a triple point that will be on the move throughout the day. Capping doesnt appear to be a problem again today with 700 mb temps near 10c and cinh of around -50. Surface winds will be better backed to the north as well. Storm motions should be managable near 30mph ENE. Will watch mesoanalysis throughout the day and adjust accordingly. Good luck to everyone that is out and be safe.

Steve 10AM

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=khjh


http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=kgbd

COREY: Blackwell, OK to Wichita, KS (I will let Chris and Steve fill in the rest, if I am even close to their target area)

Forecast Discussion:

Chase Summary:

FCST: 06-14-09 KS and CO

Target Area: LaJunta, CO to Ulysses, KS

Forecast Discussion: A dryline bulge will enter the area from the southwest around 0z. At this time low level shear should be maximized with 500mb flow from the SW at 50+knts and SE surface winds of 15knts providing good inflow for storms to feed from. Capping does'nt appear to be a problem with low cinh and 700 mb temps of around 10c. EHI in this area is also maximized of around 7-10. LCL heights should be around 1000 to give us some decent storm bases as well. Lifted index is over -10C also. RUC forecasted Skew-T for Lamar sums this up really. Chris and I will head for LaJunta later to position and to look at mesoanalysis and adjust from there.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=klaa

Chase Summary:

FCST: 6-13-09 CO and NE

Target Area: Target for today will be Sidney, NE and adjust from there. Nice SW 500mb flow into the area. RUC forecasted Skew-T for Sidney parameters, EHI 4.9, Low LCL's, CAPE 3557, low cinh. As we head west on I 80, we can shoot down I 76 at Ogallala if need be. Will be streaming live at http://www.stormchaselive.com/ and http://www.chasertv.com/


http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=ksny

Steve

Forecast Discussion:

Chase Summary:

Tornado! Vernon County MO 6-10-09

Target Area:

Forecast Discussion:

Chase Summary: Click on title to view youtube video of this storm. Summary to come Later Chase partners Brandon Sullivan (www.vortexventurers.com) and Marcus Diaz

Steve Polley

Tornado! Vernon County MO 6-10-09

Target Area:

Forecast Discussion:

Chase Summary: Click on title to view youtube video of this storm. Summary to come Later Chase partners Brandon Sullivan (www.vortexventurers.com) and Marcus Diaz

Steve Polley

FCST: KS and OK 6/9/09

Tornado Outlook
Categorical Outlook

Target Area: UPDATE: Going to position near I-35 and 160 south of Wichita, KS due to position of the warm front and outflow boundaries from the on-going convection over SE KS and SW MO.........evaluate models, vis sat and radar trends and may need to adjust our target...but we are in the game....more later as time allows...chasing today with Marcus Diaz, Brandon Sullivan and Scott Tomlinson....Corey and Steve

Appears that we may adjust our initial staging area to near Salina and reevaluate from there. It appears that the warm front may move farther to the north than earlier expected per the 0z GFS run. The NAM still places the front further south but I am trending more toward the GFS on this for now. Salina has been picked also because of the multiple road options also. We will look at the 12z runs in the morning and 15z RUC models also and update from there. Steve 6-9-09 2AM

Initial staging target is Arlington, KS (60 miles NW of Wichita, KS) of course Steve is piloting and we will go where he drives us...LOL...he was looking at Alva, OK to Pratt, KS today......

Forecast Discussion: Detailed discussion in the morning after I have had the chance to look at the model runs in-depth, morning METARS and surface front positions...need to be near the warm front for a chance at a tor....

Chase Summary:

REPORTS: 6/7/09 ~ NE and MO

Photo courtesy of Scott Tomlinson ~ http://www.stormchaselive.com/

Photo was taken from the Chillicothe Airport on June 7, 2009 at 10:15 p.m. CDT looking northwest toward a tornadic supercell.

Photo courtesy of Steve Polley

Andrew and Holt County, MO Supercell

Photo courtesy of Corey Sloan
Holt County, MO Supercell

Chase Summary: Headed west toward Seneca, KS around 11 a.m. with Steve, Chris and Marcus...moved south of Hiawatha to look at data, vis sat and radar trends...saw the cell fire south of Beatrice, NE and it looked good on radar...briefly hooked up with the Outlaw Chasers (Randy and Lisa) in Horton before moving north toward Falls City, NE....watched the cell in Nemaha County, KS intensify and decided this was our storm.....got to Falls City as nice sup was tor warned to our west...sirens blaring in Falls City..decided cells were going to root into the OFB from overnight convection and cross the river into northern MO....felt the need to get across the MO river as soon as we could before the chaser convergence tried to get across the Rulo, NE bridge...moved to 111 and 159 and got some decent structure thoughts as the sup moved across the river...the bluffs were a bit of a hindrance but we were across the river....the cell continued to intensify and we moved south to get away from the GORILLA hail that fell in Holt County, MO...no damage to the chasemobile by the way!!!! Got to Savannah as the storm passed to our north....rotation in this sup was tremendous, visibly and on radar...many reports of funnels and tornadoes....but we never saw them if they were there....moved south and east into Dekalb County....relaying info to EAX via NWS Chat......used our local home chase road networks to avoid the chaser convergence...it was one for the record books....only mistake we made was trying to get through the MO 6 and Hwy C intersection....but we had no choice...Dekalb County was reporting Weatherby's sirens were not sounding and FD was alerting residents...Steve (Osborn FD) responded mutual aid FD to alert residents....keep in mind Weatherby was devastated by the May 29, 2004 F-4 tornado...did our duties and continued following the cell into Daviess County...quick splash of gas in Altamont and eastbound we went....began relaying info to Glen on the Chillicothe amateur repeater and he forwarded them to EAX....large wall cloud but no visible tornado as the sup moved east into Chillicothe....hooked up with Scott Tomlinson, now that was a wise choice, as he was able to snap an AWESOME lightning shot near the Chillicothe airport...Randy Cooper and another chaser from KCMO hooked up with us here and we stayed on the cell until it became outflow dominant......cell near Cameron was gaining intensity and quickly became tor warned with a public report of a large wedge tor on the ground NW of Kidder.....shortly thereafter damage reports came in from Lake Viking (Grapefruit size hail) and wind damage in Gallatin.....never saw a tor and did not see a damage path today in the daylight.....damage at Lake Viking was significant to say the least....one of the most exhausting and fun chases Chris, Steve and I can remember.....what a day!!!!! Corey

Chase miles for the weekend: 2,020!!!!!

FCST 6/6/09 ~ SE NE / NE KS

Target Area: Currently headed for Nebraska City, NE to look at data..forecast once we get there....Corey

Forecast Discussion: N/A

Chase Summary: Cap bust for us in SE NE and SW IA...such a waste of late season parameters....tomorrow is looking better and is beginning to impress me!!!!!!

Goshen County, WY Tornado ~ 6/5/09

Goshen County, WY tornado. ~ June 5, 2009

(Sure wish we were closer but felt the tor would rope out before we

got any footage..and it did..so glad to get this video)