FCST: 6-26-09 NE and IA

Target Area: Oneil to Omaha

Forecast Discussion: Looks like a warm front will run east and west through NE into IA. 500mb winds of 30-40 knts over the area. Slightly backing winds at 850mb with nicely backing winds at the surface. At the surface, a warm front will be positioned from SW Nebraska, N. Central NE and back in to E. Central NE. A surface low will be positioned in West Central Kansas. A dryline will be on the move somewhat through this period and will be positioned near Ainsworth and southward to near Grand Island. EHI of 3 is forecast for the area also with. Cap is becoming a bit of a concern as the models are showing cinh of -100-200. Cape is forecasted to be 2500-3009 j/kg, LCL's of 750 or less. IF storms can fire west of this area, there should be good instability for the storms to work with. West and south of the Ainsworth area, 700mb temps are forecast to be 13-15C which is a definite concern as far as the cap goes. I may position myself closer to the Omaha area as these temps are forecast to be closer to 1oc. The forecasted reflectivity also is picking up on the capping inversion. So as of now, I think I will positoin near Omaha and adjust during the day from there based on current mesonanalysis.

Steve 10pm Thursday

Chase Summary:

Tornado! Near Steamboat Rock, Iowa

Target Area:

Forecast Discussion:

Chase Summary: This is a screen cap from my video camera. I didnt get a good still photo of it because I was running the A/C and because of the humidity, the camera was completed fogged over from condensation so lesson learned here. Summary to follow later.

FCST: 6/19/09 MO / IL

SPC SWODY2

EDIT: If any overnight convection occurs over the target area....remnant OFB's will need to be watched closely as well tomorrow......storms have fired over south central NE as I write this blog entry......

Target Area: Target 1-Northern Missouri / Target 2-West Central IL (NAM/GFS blend of 0Z runs)--Corey

Forecast Discussion: Going to keep my thoughts brief tonight as it has been a long day....H5 streak of 60 kts forecast to be along and just north of the US 36 corridor...H7 temps and CINH may be an issue again tomorrow, but think there will be enough forcing to erode any cap that exists by late afternoon/early evening with the advancement of a mid level feature and the cold front and a forecasted developing surface low....surface winds are forecast to be SWLY at 10 kts and every so slightly backed over the target area at 0Z/20......Dp's in the 70's over most of the target area....with temps in the 80's...do not think Tdd's will be an issue with surface LCL's forecast to be 250 to 500m....wind profiles are adequate for rotating supercells with bulk shear in the 50kt range....models differ in CAPE values a tad over target #1 (went with a blend of 2000 J/kg) but target #2 is comparable with 3000J/kg...Helicity values are best over NW and North Central MO at 0Z......hopefully storms will fire in front of the advancing cold front and remain discrete early on in the event before they are over run....storm motions are roughly from 280-290 at 30 kts....not bad for NW MO as far as road options go....but anything past US 65 and it gets ugly....I am expecting a linear mess by mid evening as the cold front overtakes any early convection....and yes more rain with PWV forecasted to be in the 1 to 1.5 inch range with locally higher amounts forecasted....

Primary Threats: Large Hail and Damaging Winds with an isolated tornado threat with any storms that fire early....

Chase Summary:

FCST: 6-18-09 IA

Target Area: Initial Staging area I 35/US30 in IA

Forecast Discussion: H5 streak of 70knts is forecast to enter the area by 0z. EHI values, STP, 0-3 km SRH are maximized in this area. Im keeping this short and sweet as I need to be on the road for the area. Will be wanting to position myself north of the warm front and watch for any OFB's that have formed. My thoughts are that the storms will initiate NW of here and move east of I 35 near 0z. Chris, Evan and myself will be streaming later today at www.stormchaselive.com and www.severestudios.com

Steve
10AM

Chase Summary:

FCST: 6/15/09 KS

Target Area: Initial target of Great Bend KS to Salina KS

STEVE: I will be positioning myself near Great Bend late this morning. This is where EHI is highest, forecasted RUC cape of near 6000 j/kg, this will also be very close to a triple point that will be on the move throughout the day. Capping doesnt appear to be a problem again today with 700 mb temps near 10c and cinh of around -50. Surface winds will be better backed to the north as well. Storm motions should be managable near 30mph ENE. Will watch mesoanalysis throughout the day and adjust accordingly. Good luck to everyone that is out and be safe.

Steve 10AM

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=khjh


http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=kgbd

COREY: Blackwell, OK to Wichita, KS (I will let Chris and Steve fill in the rest, if I am even close to their target area)

Forecast Discussion:

Chase Summary:

FCST: 06-14-09 KS and CO

Target Area: LaJunta, CO to Ulysses, KS

Forecast Discussion: A dryline bulge will enter the area from the southwest around 0z. At this time low level shear should be maximized with 500mb flow from the SW at 50+knts and SE surface winds of 15knts providing good inflow for storms to feed from. Capping does'nt appear to be a problem with low cinh and 700 mb temps of around 10c. EHI in this area is also maximized of around 7-10. LCL heights should be around 1000 to give us some decent storm bases as well. Lifted index is over -10C also. RUC forecasted Skew-T for Lamar sums this up really. Chris and I will head for LaJunta later to position and to look at mesoanalysis and adjust from there.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=klaa

Chase Summary:

FCST: 6-13-09 CO and NE

Target Area: Target for today will be Sidney, NE and adjust from there. Nice SW 500mb flow into the area. RUC forecasted Skew-T for Sidney parameters, EHI 4.9, Low LCL's, CAPE 3557, low cinh. As we head west on I 80, we can shoot down I 76 at Ogallala if need be. Will be streaming live at http://www.stormchaselive.com/ and http://www.chasertv.com/


http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=RUC&STATIONID=ksny

Steve

Forecast Discussion:

Chase Summary:

Tornado! Vernon County MO 6-10-09

Target Area:

Forecast Discussion:

Chase Summary: Click on title to view youtube video of this storm. Summary to come Later Chase partners Brandon Sullivan (www.vortexventurers.com) and Marcus Diaz

Steve Polley

Tornado! Vernon County MO 6-10-09

Target Area:

Forecast Discussion:

Chase Summary: Click on title to view youtube video of this storm. Summary to come Later Chase partners Brandon Sullivan (www.vortexventurers.com) and Marcus Diaz

Steve Polley

FCST: KS and OK 6/9/09

Tornado Outlook
Categorical Outlook

Target Area: UPDATE: Going to position near I-35 and 160 south of Wichita, KS due to position of the warm front and outflow boundaries from the on-going convection over SE KS and SW MO.........evaluate models, vis sat and radar trends and may need to adjust our target...but we are in the game....more later as time allows...chasing today with Marcus Diaz, Brandon Sullivan and Scott Tomlinson....Corey and Steve

Appears that we may adjust our initial staging area to near Salina and reevaluate from there. It appears that the warm front may move farther to the north than earlier expected per the 0z GFS run. The NAM still places the front further south but I am trending more toward the GFS on this for now. Salina has been picked also because of the multiple road options also. We will look at the 12z runs in the morning and 15z RUC models also and update from there. Steve 6-9-09 2AM

Initial staging target is Arlington, KS (60 miles NW of Wichita, KS) of course Steve is piloting and we will go where he drives us...LOL...he was looking at Alva, OK to Pratt, KS today......

Forecast Discussion: Detailed discussion in the morning after I have had the chance to look at the model runs in-depth, morning METARS and surface front positions...need to be near the warm front for a chance at a tor....

Chase Summary:

REPORTS: 6/7/09 ~ NE and MO

Photo courtesy of Scott Tomlinson ~ http://www.stormchaselive.com/

Photo was taken from the Chillicothe Airport on June 7, 2009 at 10:15 p.m. CDT looking northwest toward a tornadic supercell.

Photo courtesy of Steve Polley

Andrew and Holt County, MO Supercell

Photo courtesy of Corey Sloan
Holt County, MO Supercell

Chase Summary: Headed west toward Seneca, KS around 11 a.m. with Steve, Chris and Marcus...moved south of Hiawatha to look at data, vis sat and radar trends...saw the cell fire south of Beatrice, NE and it looked good on radar...briefly hooked up with the Outlaw Chasers (Randy and Lisa) in Horton before moving north toward Falls City, NE....watched the cell in Nemaha County, KS intensify and decided this was our storm.....got to Falls City as nice sup was tor warned to our west...sirens blaring in Falls City..decided cells were going to root into the OFB from overnight convection and cross the river into northern MO....felt the need to get across the MO river as soon as we could before the chaser convergence tried to get across the Rulo, NE bridge...moved to 111 and 159 and got some decent structure thoughts as the sup moved across the river...the bluffs were a bit of a hindrance but we were across the river....the cell continued to intensify and we moved south to get away from the GORILLA hail that fell in Holt County, MO...no damage to the chasemobile by the way!!!! Got to Savannah as the storm passed to our north....rotation in this sup was tremendous, visibly and on radar...many reports of funnels and tornadoes....but we never saw them if they were there....moved south and east into Dekalb County....relaying info to EAX via NWS Chat......used our local home chase road networks to avoid the chaser convergence...it was one for the record books....only mistake we made was trying to get through the MO 6 and Hwy C intersection....but we had no choice...Dekalb County was reporting Weatherby's sirens were not sounding and FD was alerting residents...Steve (Osborn FD) responded mutual aid FD to alert residents....keep in mind Weatherby was devastated by the May 29, 2004 F-4 tornado...did our duties and continued following the cell into Daviess County...quick splash of gas in Altamont and eastbound we went....began relaying info to Glen on the Chillicothe amateur repeater and he forwarded them to EAX....large wall cloud but no visible tornado as the sup moved east into Chillicothe....hooked up with Scott Tomlinson, now that was a wise choice, as he was able to snap an AWESOME lightning shot near the Chillicothe airport...Randy Cooper and another chaser from KCMO hooked up with us here and we stayed on the cell until it became outflow dominant......cell near Cameron was gaining intensity and quickly became tor warned with a public report of a large wedge tor on the ground NW of Kidder.....shortly thereafter damage reports came in from Lake Viking (Grapefruit size hail) and wind damage in Gallatin.....never saw a tor and did not see a damage path today in the daylight.....damage at Lake Viking was significant to say the least....one of the most exhausting and fun chases Chris, Steve and I can remember.....what a day!!!!! Corey

Chase miles for the weekend: 2,020!!!!!

FCST 6/6/09 ~ SE NE / NE KS

Target Area: Currently headed for Nebraska City, NE to look at data..forecast once we get there....Corey

Forecast Discussion: N/A

Chase Summary: Cap bust for us in SE NE and SW IA...such a waste of late season parameters....tomorrow is looking better and is beginning to impress me!!!!!!

Goshen County, WY Tornado ~ 6/5/09

Goshen County, WY tornado. ~ June 5, 2009

(Sure wish we were closer but felt the tor would rope out before we

got any footage..and it did..so glad to get this video)

Banner County, NE Funnel

This was new development after the initial tornado roped out. It never did anything more than this. June 5, 2009

NOW 6/5/09--UPDATE SW NE

EDIT: Nice elephant trunk tornado in SE WY today....we were near SW NE today and out here you can see forever so our initial thoughts were we were in SW NE....however, after chatting with EB and looking at SPC reports we were indeed watching the cell in WY from NE...had to be standing on the state lines....LOL..

Ccurrently hosed by the road network and cannot get to the southeast side of the storm...have south options, but they are all sand.....sand road after a rainstorm...NOT....working our way to the east on Hwy 88 to try to get in a better location before dark.....ROAD NETWORK FAIL...but what can we say.....pics and video hopefully later....the elephant trunk was awesome to view.....Corey and Steve

Chris is south on I-80....we will be working our way back toward central NE tonight for tomorrows chase...more later