Target Area: Buffalo, SD
Forecast Discussion: 500mb winds 50-60knts, backed 850mb winds at 30 knts just to the north, Surface winds will be backed at 20 knts. A warm front will be draped near the ND/SD border with a tight surface low on the MT, SD, WY borders. Dewpoints are forecasted to be 65-70F in the area. 0-3km Helicity will be over 300m2s2 just west of Buffalo. Supercell development with isolated tornados is likely early on in the MT,WY, SD borders with movement to the ENE at 15knts. Will be watching mesoanalysis throughout the day and adjust accordingly.
Steve 830AM MDT
Chase Summary:
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
FCST: 7/8/09 N. and S. Dakota
Target Area: Steve Polley and Craig Maire have teamed up to chase the Dakota's on Day 2 and Day 3....
Forecast Discussion: Details from the team and I later tonight.....
Chase Summary:
Forecast Discussion: Details from the team and I later tonight.....
Chase Summary:
Thursday, July 2, 2009
FCST: 7-3-09 KS/NE
Target Area: Grand Island to York, NE (10AM Friday)
Forecast Discussion: UPDATE 10AM 7-3-09 I am still sticking with this target for now. Of course this will probably be adjusted a bit during the day based on mesoanalysis. 500mb flow will be a zonal flow from 30-50knts. This is a mix of the RUC and NAM forecast. A warm front will be on the move from KS moving north to just north of the NE/KS border. This will be the area I will play along and just north of this boundary. Surface winds will be nicely backed in this area as well. Storm motions should be decent with a mainly east movement at 25-30mph. Precipitable water values are 1.5 -2.0 which could promote HP supercell structures. CAPE is forecasted to be 2000-3000 j/kg. EHI in the area of over 6. LCL's under 1000. LI of -7-10 in the area as well. The cap at this time per the 12z runs has become less of a issue but may be just enough to get the instability we are looking for. Storms look to hold off till around 23z as of now. I will be positioning myself in this area by 23z.
Steve 10am
Chase Summary:
Forecast Discussion: UPDATE 10AM 7-3-09 I am still sticking with this target for now. Of course this will probably be adjusted a bit during the day based on mesoanalysis. 500mb flow will be a zonal flow from 30-50knts. This is a mix of the RUC and NAM forecast. A warm front will be on the move from KS moving north to just north of the NE/KS border. This will be the area I will play along and just north of this boundary. Surface winds will be nicely backed in this area as well. Storm motions should be decent with a mainly east movement at 25-30mph. Precipitable water values are 1.5 -2.0 which could promote HP supercell structures. CAPE is forecasted to be 2000-3000 j/kg. EHI in the area of over 6. LCL's under 1000. LI of -7-10 in the area as well. The cap at this time per the 12z runs has become less of a issue but may be just enough to get the instability we are looking for. Storms look to hold off till around 23z as of now. I will be positioning myself in this area by 23z.
Steve 10am
Chase Summary:
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