Thursday, January 7, 2010

Dangerous wind chills through Saturday.....

EDIT: 0700/8 High pressure continues to settle into the midwest at this hour.  A layer of cloud cover will keep us from bottoming out completely tonight.  This will most likely be different tomorrow night!  Nonetheless, this is some of the coldest air temperatures we have seen in the last 20 years.  I can remember, as a child, winters being like this, with lots of snow and bitter cold temperatures.  However, this is new for my kids and others of the same age range.  It is a true winter this year in MO! 

Here is a look at a couple of surface maps I generated a few moments ago.  The first map is the current sea level pressures (notice the 1044mb High in Northeast NE), wind vectors and radar overlay for the 4 state area. The second map is the wind chill reading at this hour. 

If you must go out, bundle up, be prepared (layered clothing, stocking cap, face mask, gloves, etc)  and have a survival kit (blankets, flashlight, cell phone, candle, small shovel, etc) in your vehicle.

(Click on image to make it larger)


 (Click on image to make it larger)

Old Discussion
A wind chill warning has been issued by the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill until noon Saturday, January 9, 2010.  The wind chill in the area is approaching -25F below zero.  Here is a look at the wind chill values at 6:45 p.m. local time:


(Click on image to make larger)

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

01/06-7/10 Winter Storm Warning continues....

A winter storm warning continues for the local area until Thursday at 6 p.m.  Wide spread 3" to 5" snow accumulations are possible in the local area.  Winds are expected to increase to the 20 to 30 mph range with gusts to 35 to 40 tonight as the arctic front passes.  This will reduce visibilities and create near blizzard conditions later today and into the overnight hours.  This will drop wind chills to -20 to -30+ below zero.  This continues to be a dangerous and potential life threatning winter storm.  Pack a survival kit in your vehicle if you must travel and take extra precautions for pets and livestock.  Here is a look at the latest surface observations in the midwest and radar echoes as of 1 p.m. local time today:



Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Cameron, MO Boy Scout Venture Crew #911 Forecast

EDIT 0711Z/8 Not bad fellas, not bad at all!  GOOD JOB!!


January 6-7, 2010:  FCST Snow and Arctic Cold/Dangerous Wind Chills

NWS has issued a winter storm warning for the local area beginning on Wednesday and lasting into Thursday.

Forecast temperatures:  High of 15F Low of -12F (Low temperature was above forecast)

Winds: NW @ 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph

Wind Chills: -20F to -25F below zero


Precipitation:  Snow, 100% POP, Accumulation 5" to 10" (Accumulation in Cameron was 6")

Timing of precipitation: 5 a.m. to 7 a.m. onset with tapering to flurries on Thursday 7 a.m. (Precip began falling in Cameron at 10:30 a.m.)

Discussion:
Low pressure approaching from the NW in a NWLY flow will impact our weather over the next 36 to 54 hours.  Major impact for the local area will be snow, strong winds, blowing and drifting snow (blizzard like conditions), dangerous wind chills.  Snow will taper off to flurries on Thursday morning with artic front passage during the later afternoon to evening hours on Wednesday.  Prepare for an extreme winter event.  Stay abreast of local weather forecasts and the NWS for updated warning information.

Prepared by Cameron Boy Scout Venture Crew #911.

Forecasters Brenton, Wesley and Jared.

Monday, January 4, 2010

FCST: 1/4-5/10 Dangerous Wind Chills

This evening and overnight:
The NWS has issued a wind chill advisory for Cameron (Dekalb County) and points north and east from 9 p.m. Monday evening until 10 a.m. Tuesday morning.  Wind chill values are expected to be between -10 and -20 this evening with air temperatures at -10 to -15.  An observer south of Cameron reported -16F this morning.  Brrrrrrrrr.......

Tuesday-Wednesday time frame:
Forecast is still on track for a 3" to 6" band of snow to affect the local area late Tuesday night into Thursday.  Winds are expected to increast to the 20 to 30 mph range after the arctic front passes.  This will be the coldest air we have experienced in the last 10 to 20 years.  Wind chills are going to be quite dangerous Thursday into Saturday.  Please take necessary precautions now to outfit your vehicle with a winter survival kit, wear stocking caps, gloves and bring pets in from outside.  In addition, keep your livestock's water source in mind during this bout of VERY cold temperatures.

Current wind chills: As of 8:30 p.m. local time the air temperature was 1.2F and is expected to bottom out near -10.  Wind chills are forecasted to be in the -10F to -20F range. ~ CS

Here is a look at wind chill values as of 8:26 p.m local time:

Click map to see larger vieweable version
Created with Digital Atmosphere Pro

Sunday, January 3, 2010

FCST: 1/6-7/10 SNOW and ARCTIC AIR

EDIT: 0530Z/4--Last few model runs have been trending toward less snow for the local area.  The GFS still has us in a 3" to 5" band and the NAM-WRF has us in a 2" to 4" band.  I am looking for continued consistency in the models over the next few runs before I buy into the lower snow totals.  Again, this is a NWLY flow event and not the classical desert SW setup for the local area.  The cold air will also effect the snow accumulations as well.  As I said in the earlier post, I will update the blog with the latest snow totals the models are putting out. ~ CS


GFS forecast Snowfall Accumulation 12Z Thursday morning


NAM-WRF Snowfall Accumulation forecast 12Z Thursday morning


Upper CONUS and Canada Station Plots 0630Z/4

OLD BLOG ENTRY: The models are remaining very consistent in the track and strength of the next storm system.  This system will come in from the northwest as our NWLY flow continues.  I do not expect this storm to be like the Christmas Eve/Christmas Day Blizzard we experienced just a few weeks ago.  However, we could easily receive 3" to 6" of snow, with locally higher amounts, with some blowing of the light snow.  The cold air will change the snow ratio per equivalent liquid precipitation so we will have to watch this as the storm unfolds. 


GFS 96 Hour Accumulated Snowfall prediction
(Valid 6 a.m. Thursday January 7, 2010)

The following model images are depicting Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening. (0Z Thursday is 6 p.m. Wednesday evening and 12Z Wednesday is 6 a.m. Wednesday morinng)


GFS Surface Pressure / SLP / 1000-500 mb Thickness

GFS forecasted 700 mb Vertical Velocites / Heights and Winds

GFS forecasted 500 mb Absolute Vorticity, Heights and Winds

ECMWF forecasted 500 mb Sea Level Pressure and Heights

UKMET forcasted 500 mb Absolute Vorticity and Heights


GEM Pressure, Thickness and Heights 00Z/3 Panels

Winds are forecasted to be in the 15 to 20 mph range with possible higher gusts.  I do not expect the drifting we saw with the last major storm either.  However, the lighter the snow is the easiler it will be to blow around and reduce visibilities during the more moderate bands of snow.


Western Canada Surface temperatures Sunday Janaury 3, 2010

The major story will be the cold air behind the system.  We will most likely experience some of the coldest air we have seen in many years.  A 1047 to 1050 mb high is forecasted to build in as the system moves off to the east and southeast.   Models are still forecasting highs below zero or near zero on Thursday and Friday with overnight lows in the teens below zero.  Factor in the wind and we could easily see windchills near forty below zero. Stay safe and stay warm this next week.  I will update the blog if my forecasted snow amounts change. ~ CS





Saturday, January 2, 2010

FCST: 1/6-7/10 Snow and Arctic air

Models are fairly consistent in bringing a potentially significant snow storm into the local area on Wednesday.  In addition, with the northwesterly flow VERY cold arctic air will follow the system with some operational models and sounding model data predicting teens to twenties below zero for actual air temperatures with wind chill values approaching forty below zero!  This week's weather should be watched very carefully!  It is still to early to say if this storm will come into fruition, but with the significant winter weather we had in December we need to be prepared!  More on the blog as the models get a better handle on the forecasted track and strength of the storm!  For now, enjoy the first of many short wave disturbances that is going to give us some "nuisance" snow accumulations over the next 24 hours. ~ CS

Friday, January 1, 2010

FCST: 1/7-8/2010 NW MO and NE KS Snow event

Happy New Year from the Meso Extreme blog team!  Chase season is just around the corner!  Hopefully 2010 will provide some better chase weather for the http://www.stormchaselive.com/ chase team!  Albeit, we are not wishing destructive weather and disaster on anyone!

Now back to winter weather....

This week has the potential for the coldest temperatures we have seen in the last several years.  Forecast actual highs may be in the single digits with lows in the teens below zero.  The wind chills have the potential to be very dangerous as most students head back to school!  Keep a good situational awareness this week and do not forget to remember your pets during this stretch of potentially very cold weather!!!!

As I type this the NWS just issued a wind chill advisory for the local area.  Here is the text:

AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI TONIGHT. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO
COMBINED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY
COLD WIND CHILL READINGS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
 
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-
MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...TARKIO...MARYVILLE...GRANT CITY...ALBANY...
STANBERRY...BETHANY...PRINCETON...UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...MOUND CITY...OREGON...SAVANNAH...CAMERON...GALLATIN...JAMESPORT...TRENTON...
MILAN...GREEN CITY...KIRKSVILLE...ST. JOSEPH..PLATTSBURG...HAMILTON...
POLO...CHILLICOTHE...BROOKFIELD...MACON...LA PLATA


303 PM CST FRI JAN 1 2010
WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY.


* WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO DANGEROUS READINGS OF AROUND 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS...MAKE SURE YOU WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES.
 
The GFS is also hinting at a moderate snow event Tuesday into Thursday of the upcoming work week! 
Stay tuned to the blog and the NWS for future forecasts on this potential mid-week snow event! ~ CS