FCST: 12/19-20/11 ~ Blizzard SW Kansas

A potent winter storm system is taking aim on southwestern and central Kansas at this hour.  The storm will be a prolonged storm producing moderate to sometimes heavy snow across a large portion of the sunflower state for 18 hours or more.  Numerous winter storm and blizzard watches have been posted.

Here is an overview of the latest watches and warnings from the National Weather Service:

Here is a look at the storm system as it appears this morning on water vapor imagery.  The fly in the ointment, for a major snow for our local area, is the model progs of warm air aloft and a dry air intrusion at the mid levels.

Here is the forecast significant surface low track from the HPC:

  
One thing to note is the track of this system is in a near perfect position for a major snow producer for Western and Northwestern MO...Fort Smith, AR to just south of St. Louis....*USUALLY* 200 miles northwest of the track gets dumped on.....something we will definitely have to watch as the system moves out into the MS valley tomorrow into Tuesday. ~ CS

FCST 1/10-11/11 SNOW Northern Missouri

A prolonged winter weather event is poised to provide a decent snow machine for much of the central plains.  The NWS has hoisted winter storm watches and warnings for most of NE, KS, IA and MO for the Monday through Tuesday time period.

Here is a look at some basic surface features, as well as the watches/warnings, as of 11 a.m. CST January 9, 2011:

An area of low pressure and an an associated inverted trough is going to be the focus for precipitation across the four state area beginning late tonight and lasting through Tuesday morning.  The storm system can be seen very easily on this morning's water vapor imagery in southern Canada and diving into MT.  In addition, a developing shortwave can be observed near the four corners region that will provide us our first shot of snow late tonight.  The main show will hold off until Monday afternoon and evening!

This storm system will be slow to move allowing a prolonged period of light to moderate snowfall to accumulate.  Current NWS forecasts are for 5" to 8" to fall.  I feel extremely comfortable with my initial forecast on January 4, 2011 of  3" to 6" of snow from this sytem.  Here is a look at the forecasted QPF for this storm system:

One other thing to note is the strong winter storm that is going to affect the Gulf States region and eventually the southern Atlantic Coast.  This storm will produce ice and snow on a level not normally seen in this part of the country.  In addition it is helping stream gulf moisture northward that will ultimately interact with our snow machine to allow ample moisture to be available for decent snowfall. The interesting and devastating weather from 2010 continues into the early part of 2011. ~ CS

2010 SPC Tornado and Severe T-Storm Watches by County

2011 Arctic Air Intrusion / Snow

UPDATE: 01/07/11 0230Z:  The southern stream surface low pressure is going to track further south and not have an impact on our weather.  However, the northern stream is going to provide a storm system that will be impacting our weather in the Sunday through Tuesday time frame.  This will give us a shot at accumulating snowfall across a large portion of Western and Northern MO.  I am still thinking a 3" to 6" snowfall is very possible with this system for the local area.  Albeit, the GFS is forecasting Snowmageddon across NE KS, SE NE and SW IA with over 16" of accumulation.  Not buying into this just yet as these type of snows are very rare for our area.  However, QPF in the aforementioned area is forecasted over 1/2".  Definitely something to keep an eye on as we head into the weekend.  One thing for certain is it is going to get a lot colder next week.  A fresh snow pack to our north will have a big impact on overnight lows and daytime highs.  This will be coldest air this winter season!

Here is a look at the current surface low and forecasted tracks.  Note there is a clipper system providing snow to NE MO and NW IL this morning.  Happy Friday everyone. ~ CS

Current regional NEXRAD view (automatically updates):

OLD DISCUSSION:
The first true arctic air of the season is building in the northern territories and is going to make a dive into the CONUS beginning as early as next week.  A cross polar flow has set up and will continue to tap into Arctic air and drop temperatures across the northern territories.  High temperatures will struggle to reach the 0F mark toward the end of the weekend. 

Here is a look at the current temperatures across the northern territories and the Canadian provinces closer to the CONUS:



The GFS has been advertising very cold temperatures spilling into the CONUS next week.  Some of the model runs have put afternoon high temperatures below 0F across the Midwest.  Albeit, the models have really backed off on the cold air spilling southward the latest model runs. 

Here is a look at the GFS forecasted highs next Wednesday January 12, 2011:

Ok, what about precipitation and winter precipitation.  Well the first shot comes during the middle of the upcoming weekend with a shortwave moving out of the southern plains.  The track of this shortwave will be important to the type of wintry precipitation we get and how much.  As it looks right now I am anticipating as much as 3" to 6" for the local area.  This of course is all subject to change based on the track of the shortwave and available moisture.

Here is a look at the QPF for January 8-10, 2011:

It is going to be something we need to watch as we head toward the end of the work week and into the weekend.  The mild winter we have had thus far looks to come to an abrupt end, we knew it couldn't last forever. ~ CS