NOW: Mid-Level Cyclone on WV Imagery

Fairly nice mid-level cyclone responsible for the nasty weather in NE KS, NW MO and SE NE on the WV imagery!  Nice comma head to the system and sign of a significant winter storm for our area.

No accumulation here in Cameron, but have had bursts of moderate to sometimes heavy wet snow throughout the day.  It fell mostly as rain as the temps were still a bit warm. 

Winter Wx Advisory--11/16-17/2009 ~ NW MO

Winter Wx Advisory in effect from 3 a.m. Monday to 6 a.m. Tuesday for NW MO ~ Dekalb County is on southern end of the advisory area per EAX Advisory.

Snow--Wet and heavy at times accumulating 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts in extreme NE KS and NW MO.

Dekalb County is expected to get a trace to 2"...but as said in an early blog post the track of the ULL is going to be important as is the storms ability to generate its own cold air, which we are currently lacking at the surface (temps in the low to mid 40's at the surface in NE).  Column has saturated nicely, expect warm moist air to continue to be drawn into the system which will cause the heavy wet snow to accumulate rather quickly on grassy surfaces. ~ CS

FCST: 11/16-17/09 NE KS/SE NE/NW MO/SW IA--Snow

POOF...It's gone...this storm is going to be a teaser as it slowly

moves out into the plains.  Oh so close to our first flakes of the season!

HPC Day 2 Composite Probability Forecast

Interesting sounding for KSTJ for tomorrow 8am CST????

The biggest issue as this system pulls out into the plains is the warm surface and lower atmosphere temperatures and warmer, drier air being pulled into the system at the mid levels.  I am expecting just a cold rain over the next few days with possibly a flake or two mixed in, especially during the overnight periods as the column cools.  The warm ground temps are going to limit any snowfall accumulation in our area.  Persons in NE KS could see their first 1" snowfall of the season tonight through Tuesday.  The disclaimer here is this storm is fairly strong and significant for early in the season.  It may be able to develop enough cold air to squeeze out some light to moderate snow during the overnight periods that could give us a dusting.  I will be glad to see it come back around in late December or early January when the temperatures should be colder (only if you are a believer in forecasting based on long waves).  Otherwise, it is going to be a cold, wet and dreary few days as the system takes its time moving out of the plains.  I will be watching:

1) the track of the upper level low (which is forecasted now to pass just south of KC--a few hundred miles either way will make a MAJOR difference on our snow chances);

2) MOS vs actual temp to see where we are surface temp wise, as well as watching the temperature profile of the column;

3) the ability of the levels to saturate and cool as the storm approaches from the SW. ~ CS

FCST: 11/16-17/2009 SNOW NE KS and NW MO

Current (14NOV) Surface Fronts / SLP / 500mb winds

QPF Forecast Sunday-Wednesday

HPC 4" Snowfall Probability (10%) for 6 p.m. Tuesday through 6 p.m. Wednesday

I have been watching the storm system evolving over the intermountain region this weekend.  I am gaining more and more confidence that we may see our first snowflakes of the season Monday night into Wednesday (possibly even our 1st 1" snowfall of the season).  Still concerned about the amount of cold air currently present across the lower Mississippi Valley, but this storm system is pretty potent.  We may be in for a bit of a surprise with this early winter storm.  One thing for certain is the potential for a lot of precipitation is possible.  More info later as I try to dissect the latest model data. ~ CS

For you long rangers look at the forecast models take on next weekends storm.  I am not a believer in long range winter model forecasts (with the exception of the LRC)...but is sure looks interesting for the mid west toward the mid to latter part of next weekend. ~ CS