POOF...It's gone...this storm is going to be a teaser as it slowly
moves out into the plains. Oh so close to our first flakes of the season!
HPC Day 2 Composite Probability Forecast
Interesting sounding for KSTJ for tomorrow 8am CST????
The biggest issue as this system pulls out into the plains is the warm surface and lower atmosphere temperatures and warmer, drier air being pulled into the system at the mid levels. I am expecting just a cold rain over the next few days with possibly a flake or two mixed in, especially during the overnight periods as the column cools. The warm ground temps are going to limit any snowfall accumulation in our area. Persons in NE KS could see their first 1" snowfall of the season tonight through Tuesday. The disclaimer here is this storm is fairly strong and significant for early in the season. It may be able to develop enough cold air to squeeze out some light to moderate snow during the overnight periods that could give us a dusting. I will be glad to see it come back around in late December or early January when the temperatures should be colder (only if you are a believer in forecasting based on long waves). Otherwise, it is going to be a cold, wet and dreary few days as the system takes its time moving out of the plains. I will be watching:
1) the track of the upper level low (which is forecasted now to pass just south of KC--a few hundred miles either way will make a MAJOR difference on our snow chances);
2) MOS vs actual temp to see where we are surface temp wise, as well as watching the temperature profile of the column;
3) the ability of the levels to saturate and cool as the storm approaches from the SW. ~ CS
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