Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Yazoo City, MS Tornado: April 24, 2010

Posted by Jesse Risley on April 27, 2010 at 9:43 PM
   



The video that I have uploaded here chronicles the monstrous supercell  that struck Yazoo City, Mississippi on Saturday, April 24, 2010.   Convective Addiction compatriots Jesse Risley and Brad Goddard, along  with fellow chaser Kevin Crawmer, intercepted the supercell several  miles to the south of Yazoo City, MS.  At is became apparent that a tornado  of elephantine proportions was enshrouding itself just behind the  curtains of rain wrapping into the southern flank of the cell, our  efforts turned from videographer to diverting oncoming motorists who  were obviously unaware of the dangers that they were about to encounter  as they proceeded northbound on U.S. 49.  Unfortunately, a few of them  encountered the outer flanks of the wedge tornado and sustained  vehicular damage just up the road from our location, though no one was  seriously injured as far as we could tell.

The most disturbing aspect of this entire day was the fact that when we originally entered the community from the north about twenty minutes prior to  the arrival of the tornado, a Tornado Emergency had already been issued by the  NWS office in Jackson, MS several minutes prior to our  arrival on Hwy 49N.  However, it was  business as usual in the community and no sirens appeared to have been  activated at that time.  Witnesses later told us that they heard the sirens very  briefly before the tornado hit (app. 1-2 minutes as best, others said 5-10 minutes).  You can hear  a forecaster from the NWS in the background several minutes into the  videotape reading a live on-air NOAA Weather Radio script of the Tornado  Emergency.

As we entered the community again immediately following the passage of the twister, our efforts quickly turned to  assisting with imminent search and rescue operations, as there were no  emergency personnel on the scene of some of the worst damage that  occurred in the eastern side of the city for 5-10 minutes after our  arrival.  This was likely due more to the extent of damage and road  blockages community-wide than it was a failure on anyone’s (EMS, LE or Fire) part to  respond in a commensurate manner.  In a situation this drastic, the only first responders may very well be ordinary citizens and neighbors.

There is much to be said about the prudence and sanity of chasing HP supercells that are producing strong to violent tornadoes, wrapped in  rain, while moving at hypersonic speeds of 55+ mph, and in the "jungles" of  the Deep South nonetheless.  This is exactly why we positioned ourselves far enough south to ensure that we wouldn’t even be in imminent danger  if the cell took a sudden right turn, yet still allowing respectably  close viewing of the tornado, which was mostly wrapped in rain from our vantage point.

My kudos go out to the fellow chasers who also laid down the chaser hat and worked selflessly for hours with  search and rescue efforts, helping numerous residents that were trapped  in the remnant shambles of a neighborhood forever changed that Saturday  afternoon.

The damage video that I shot isn’t even the tip of the iceberg of  what I saw yesterday, but it does offer a glimpse at the destructive  power of nature.  This was certainly a significant chase day, yet it  will remain my most humble and tragic to date.  Most of the damage footage taken in the more sunnier conditions was shot about 2-3 hours after the passage of the twister, when we were finished helping with search and rescue efforts.  I have only included what I feel is appropriate to share, as this was an emotionally charged atmosphere and some individuals sustained serious injuries as well.

An ongoing damage assessment analysis from the NWS (KJAN) can be found here.


A few radar grabs from GR Level 2 are included below.  They were  provided to us by chaser Jared Thompson of Texas.



A look back at some visual aides from April 24th


The Day 1 Outlook from the SPC is shown below








The EHI is a simple tool that is calculated by combining helicity values and atmospheric instability into  one single unit for determining whether or not a particular environment is ripe for supercell development.  A 0-1 km EHI > 1-2 suggests that significant tornadoes may be possible; the values at 17z are approaching 10 in central MS!





 The Significant Tornado parameter for the fixed layer is a composite index that comprises the 0-6 km bulk wind  difference, 0-1 km SRH, SBCAPE, sbCIN (note no shading), and surface parcel LCL  height. This mesoanalysis version of STP uses fixed layer calculations of  vertical shear, and the surface lifted parcels, as an alternative to the  "effective layer" version of STP.





Note the 300 mb Jet max is approaching 120 kts from the southwest.





 Note the 500 mb winds of 60-80 kts, when combined with the 300 mb jet streak (above)  approaching 120 kts, yielded effective shear magnitudes of 50+ kts.




"]



 Note the 55-65kt low level jet which promoted enlarged hodographs, lending SRH values of between 300 (W. MS) and 700 (NE MS), as noted in the SRH chart down below. At that time, 850 mb dewpoints sat near 14C over western MS.




[
 Note the southerly winds pooling warm, moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico, turning increasingly S-SE progressing northward through Mississippi.





 A strong LLJ rendered 0-1 km SRH of between 300-700 m2/s2 over the entire region.





At 16z SFC-1km Vertical Shear is already 60 kts across this region; > 15-20 kts is considered favorable for supercell tornadoes.





Effective bulk shear values of 60-70 kts suggest that supercells are likely (>40 kts is more than sufficient).





It is now evident that the LLJ is promoting higher THETA-E values, noting that any region with an elevated THETA-E corresponds to more significant instability and thus higher SBCAPE indices.





Warming temperatures and increasing low level dewpoints are  increase instability, as CINH erodes.  This is showing elevated THETA-E values over the region.





 At 17z most of Mississippi sits with SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG, with CINH eroded, lending an environment primed for severe weather.



Normalized CAPE values sit at 0.15 m/s**2 at 17z, suggested average parcel accelerations.






Note: Greater than 40 m/s**3 is considered high; values sit at 80 just east of where the Yazoo supercell
developed at 17z.

 
Note that a negatively tilted shortwave trough is beginning to advect ENE from the ARKLATEX region.





The VGP parameter is used to estimate the rate of tilting and stretching of horizontal vorticity by a thunderstorm updraft.  Values in excess of 0.20 m/s**2 suggest that tornadoes are more likely; here they are reaching 0.60 m/s**2 near Yazoo City.







The LFC paramater is indicative of the level at which a lifted parcel begins a free acceleration upward to equilibrium.  Tornado potential increases when LFC heights are between 1500-2000m above the surface.  As we can see, STRONG support for tornadogenesis is noted with LFC levels at 1000m.






The LCL Heights are sitting at between 500 and 1000m, lending good support for tornadoes. This is the level at which a lifted partial saturates, and is also used to estimate cloud base heights.






The BRN shear value sits at over 150 m2/s**2 across the entire region.  The BRN Shear is the denominator in the formula for the Bulk Richardson  Number, a ratio of CAPE values to deep layer shear  (6km wind - sfc wind)^2.  This indicates that an incredible amount of shear is present over the area that would soon host a number of tornadic supercells Saturday afternoon.



 
This chart gives us a glimpse of frontogenesis characteristics as an operational characteristic of kinematics.





Note that SFC-6 km shear is at 68 kts; storm motion is at 233 degrees (SW) and 57 kts!

Jesse L. Risley

Monday, April 26, 2010

FCST: April 29 - KS/OK/TX/MO/IA

TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE: I am not liking the look of the EML in southern KS Thursday afternoon and into the evening hours, albeit if a supercell goes along the dryline it has extreme potential to be violent.  I am becoming a little more focused on an area a little closer to home based on this evenings NAM-WRF and SREF.....would like to see a couple more model runs before I bite on it....but I am thinking my chase on Thursday will not be in south central Kansas....at least based on the data I am looking at tonight...look for an update tomorrow on the blog.


OLD DISCUSSION (MONDAY EVENING)
INITIAL TARGET LOCATION: Blackwell, OK

DISCUSSION:
A surface low over north central North Dakota with a cold front stretching back to the Rio Grande Valley will interact with a deep surface low forecasted to be in central Kansas by 0Z/30 and be the setup for severe thunderstorms in the central plains.  A warm front will extend from the northern area of low pressure through southern MN back into the Ohio Valley.  A dryline will also be associated with this setup in north central Oklahoma and extend back into central TX.  Here is a look at the forecasted surface map at 0Z/30.

A 300mb 110 to 120 knot jet is forecasted to be rounding the base of the trough at 0Z/30.  Embedded within this jet is an 80 knot jet streak nosing into west central OK and edging into south central KS just west of the I-35 corridor.  This system, without a doubt, has plenty of shear to work with, but will it have all of the other ingredients for a severe weather setup?

The GFS and NAM-WRF both show a negatively tilted trough ejecting out into the plains and into northern TX at 0Z/30.  Overall bulk shear from the surface to 500mb is well over 60kts. The 850mb and 500mb crossovers are  favorable for supercells, no matter how short lived they are! 


700mb temps do not look to be an issue as far as EML goes.  Any forcing at all should be able to erode any cap by mid to late afternoon, especially as the dryline mixes to the east.





700mb UVV's are appreciable along the I-35 corridor from Wichita, KS to Oklahoma City, OK


A significant 850mb jet of 60 to 70kts running parallel to the surface features will make the storm motions horrendous and nearly unable to chase safely!  Storm motions are forecasted to be from the southwest at well over 45 kts, especially along the northern edge of the cold front where it has already overtaken the dryline.  Further south things may remain more discrete for a little longer period of time due to low level shear being better in the southern play.  I still think one will need to set up in their preferred target area and let the storms come racing to you!!




850mb dewpoints are appreciable with a very apparent dry slot nosing into southwestern and south central Kansas at 0Z/30.


Surface temperatures are forecasted to be in the mid to upper 70's over the target area.  SELY surface winds will be slightly backed at 0Z/30 which may enhance the tornado threat across southern KS and northern OK, at least early on in the evolution of the system.


Moisture return into the target areas is a bit questionable at this time, but feel low to mid 60 dewpoints can be realized during the afternoon on Thursday.  I do see a nice dryline bulge in SW/SC KS at 0Z/30 which may become a factor as models continue to show consistency in the moisture return.  The surface moisture will be the key to determine if this dryline will become a factor in this severe weather setup.

CAPE values are modest in the 1000 to 1500 J/KG range on both model runs, especially along and just west of the I-35 corridor from Wichita, KS to Oklahoma City, OK


The CINH and EML, may indeed be a factor, but I still believe with the upper air dynamics and forcing from the arrival of the dryline/cold front will erode any cap by mid to late afternoon on Thursday.



EHI is maximized over southern KS and northern/central Oklahoma at 0Z/30.  This is basically along and west of the I-35 corridor from Wichita, KS to Oklahoma City, OK.  Overall helicity values are maximized in northern and central Oklahoma.




The NAM-WRF is showing the cold front breaking out precip from southern South Dakota to the Red River in Texas by 0Z/30. 



Here is a quick look at the SKEW-T and Hodo for Ponca City, OK at 0Z/30:


I anticipate discrete cells firing ahead of the dryline in southern KS, northern and central Oklahoma by mid to late afternoon before they are overtaken by the advancing cold front.  I look for the predominant storm mode to be linear with embedded supercells, especially farther north in Kansas, with the possibility of discrete supercells further south, most likely a tail end charlie play.

For this forecast, I have discounted the ECMWF, which has a slower solution, albeit a more favored one, for a blend of the NAM-WRF and GFS.  The NAM-WRF and GFS have come into better agreement the last few model runs, whereas the ECMWF is slower by 24 hours or so!  I will be watching this setup as we move toward Thursday but it has all of the ingredients, except for moisture right now, to be a decent severe setup in the central plains.

Friday, April 23, 2010

Late April tornado outbreak!

Hey y'all, Marcus Diaz here. Its been a long, yet exciting day for both me and Chris Rice here in the Texas panhandle. He caught 5 tornadoes, and I got 6 today in the area east of Amarillo. We decided from the morning that we'd play the dryline bulge setting up in the central TX panhandle. We were almost tempted to race north towards some tornadic cells in the northern TX panhandle that were about to cross into some really great CAPE values, but we held out ground. The CAPE where we were stationed originally was sitting at 2000 SBCAPE, with great backing winds coliding into the dryline. Storms were popping up along that dryline, but we finally got our small cell that developed about 60 miles to the east of the dryline. The storm went absolutely insane with all the ripe CAPE and great surface winds. This storm produced 2 tornadoes in between Goodnight and Groom, TX in rural Armstrong County. That storm went into some iffy terrain, so we jumped back to a new cell right on its heels. This was the monster of the day. The storm had a solid 65 mph inflow wind. We pursued the storm east on I-40 and quickly saw a needle tornado rope on the outside edge of the wall cloud. Unfortunately the tornado lifted by the time we stopped. We ended up about 2 miles north of Alanreed, TX, where the storm dropped an addition 4, possibly 5 tornadoes!!

Here's my pictures of the 4 tornadoes I took still from:


Twin funnels almost to the ground!




First tornado of the day.



Tornado #2 touched down shortly after, and was on the ground for several minutes.






Chris Rice in front of me watching this roping funnel. We aren't too sure if this funnel ever touched down, so unless I get confirmation we're not calling it a tornado.




Tornado #5 roping out. This tornado had a full condensation funnel prior to me getting this shot.




Tornado #6 all the way down.




Video still of tornado #7





and finally, video still of tornado #8


I'm going to have to go through the footage to see just how many tornadoes we got near Alanreed, but this was defiantely a great day for ANYONE out there chasing. A more detailed report will come soon. For now, Chris Rice is resting in Oklahoma, and is going to be in Kansas tomorrow taking advantage of another great setup. Steve Polley will also be out playing the triple point in NW MO, SE NE, SW IA area. Watch the streams tomorrow at www.stormchaselive.com!!