A low pressure system over central Canada and a trailing cold front will be our weather maker beginning Thursday afternoon and heading into Friday. A high pressure system, anchored over the southeastern seaboard has been responsible for our pleasant and tranquil weather the last week. Here is a look at the surface map at 0Z/16:
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out ahead of the front in earnest overnight Thursday and into Friday before the front clears northern Missouri. Rainfall amounts could be on the moderate to heavy side as the front will be slow to clear the local area. This is due in part to the slow movement of the surface front and the 250mb/500mb winds being parallel to the front. These setups often yield training of showers and thunderstorms over the same areas producing minor flooding issues.
The parameters will not support widespread severe thunderstorms however, some hail reports are not out of the question especially over NE KS and NW MO. CAPE values at 0Z/16 are forecasted to be in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over the aforementioned area. Helicity and EHI values are negligible over the area. Overall shear parameters are very weak with bulk shear in the 20 to 30 kt range which will preclude the development of severe thunderstorms for the local area.
Surface temps are forecasted to be in the low to mid 70's with Dp's in the low to mid 50's. Better moisture will be confined to the TX/OK/AR area due to surface ridging keeping the Gulf Moisture at bay. Temperatures behind the front will be more seasonal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60's and overnight lows in the 40's. ~ CS
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out ahead of the front in earnest overnight Thursday and into Friday before the front clears northern Missouri. Rainfall amounts could be on the moderate to heavy side as the front will be slow to clear the local area. This is due in part to the slow movement of the surface front and the 250mb/500mb winds being parallel to the front. These setups often yield training of showers and thunderstorms over the same areas producing minor flooding issues.
The parameters will not support widespread severe thunderstorms however, some hail reports are not out of the question especially over NE KS and NW MO. CAPE values at 0Z/16 are forecasted to be in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over the aforementioned area. Helicity and EHI values are negligible over the area. Overall shear parameters are very weak with bulk shear in the 20 to 30 kt range which will preclude the development of severe thunderstorms for the local area.
Surface temps are forecasted to be in the low to mid 70's with Dp's in the low to mid 50's. Better moisture will be confined to the TX/OK/AR area due to surface ridging keeping the Gulf Moisture at bay. Temperatures behind the front will be more seasonal with afternoon highs in the low to mid 60's and overnight lows in the 40's. ~ CS
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