Target Location:
Goodland, KS - Initiation 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. MDT (GFS/NAM-WRF Blend)
Forecast Discussion:
A slight risk and some upslope potential exists for E. CO, E. WY, W. NE and NW KS during the Monday afternoon and evening time frame. The main risk would be margianlly severe hail and gusty thunderstorm winds. Here is a current look at the surface features in the aforementioned target area:
The one fly in the ointment will be the residual cloud cover in the area which will affect overall instability. Upper level RH's are forecasted to be over 70%. Decent CAPE is a lacking, but nonetheless is in the 500 to 1000 J/kg.
A weak short wave disturbance is visible at the 500mb level in NE CO at 0Z/20 and ejecting out into the plains. With a developing surface low and associated trough in western NE and eastern CO.
Surface temperatures in the mid to upper 70's and Dp's in the upper 40's to low 50's. The 925mb and 850mb Dp's are appreciable so the depth and quality of moisture return is not an issue with this setup when one takes into account the higer terrain.
A 50 to 60kt upper level jet streak is feeding into eastern WY, NE CO and NW KS along with a weak (20-30 kt LLJ) visible at 850mb at 0Z/20 . The overall bulk shear is also borderline at 30-40kts. The winds are also veered to unidirectional throughout the column. I do not expect any robust, rotating updrafts with this setup, with no tornado potential at all!
NAM-WRF has precip breaking out in NW KS with the potential for some strong thunderstorms before daytime heating wanes.
Goodland, KS - Initiation 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. MDT (GFS/NAM-WRF Blend)
Forecast Discussion:
A slight risk and some upslope potential exists for E. CO, E. WY, W. NE and NW KS during the Monday afternoon and evening time frame. The main risk would be margianlly severe hail and gusty thunderstorm winds. Here is a current look at the surface features in the aforementioned target area:
The one fly in the ointment will be the residual cloud cover in the area which will affect overall instability. Upper level RH's are forecasted to be over 70%. Decent CAPE is a lacking, but nonetheless is in the 500 to 1000 J/kg.
A weak short wave disturbance is visible at the 500mb level in NE CO at 0Z/20 and ejecting out into the plains. With a developing surface low and associated trough in western NE and eastern CO.
A 50 to 60kt upper level jet streak is feeding into eastern WY, NE CO and NW KS along with a weak (20-30 kt LLJ) visible at 850mb at 0Z/20 . The overall bulk shear is also borderline at 30-40kts. The winds are also veered to unidirectional throughout the column. I do not expect any robust, rotating updrafts with this setup, with no tornado potential at all!
NAM-WRF has precip breaking out in NW KS with the potential for some strong thunderstorms before daytime heating wanes.
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