Friday morning update: INITIAL TARGET AREA: I have adjusted my target area a bit west based on the latest data. I am looking at a line from Hiawatha, KS to Seward, NE. I will adjust this afternoon after looking at MesoAnalysis data.
Thursday Evening Update: Quick look at the 0Z NAM-WRF as the GFS is still initializing and the 0Z time frame is not available as I type this blog entry....the SREF was also used as a guide....models paint a rather ominous picture for Northern MO for Friday afternoon and evening. Lapse rates are approaching 8 to 9C with the potential for some very large hail....The only thing that may be the saving grace for the tor potential is the helicity values in the lower 1-3km of the atmoshphere...if these values change the tornado potential will increase dramatically....will need to watch the surface charts very close tomorrow as well as visible satellite....the ability of overnight convection to clear, sunshine to break out and destabilize the atmoshpere and the position of the warm front will be important factors...remnant outflow boundaries should also be considered from overnight convection ....Dewpoints are forecasted to be in the mid 60's and CAPE values in the 2500 J/KG in NW MO....surface winds are backed which is a plus and overall bulk shear is 60kts Sfc-500mb, coupled with an increasing LLJ of 40kts....as well as the triple point being very close by....hodos look appreciable....challenging forecast that is going to depend on how it all looks tomorrow morning in real time....right now I am liking the NW MO area from St. Joseph to Bethany, MO for a chase target....with initiation in the 21Z time frame and things really ramping up toward 0Z/24......this will be a nowcasting event with mesoanalysis data being scrutinzed heavily as we head into the afternoon hours.....
OLD DISCUSSION:
The storm system in the desert southwest will be ejecting out into the central plains late tonight and into Friday. This storm system will bring the potential of wide spread severe weather, and potentially significant, throughout the central CONUS.
I have not had a chance to look at the model progs in depth and have only skimmed them. ATTM it appears the greatest threat for severe weather including the potential for significant tornadoes will be along the warm front draped from SE NE back through northern MO/southern IA into IL and near the triple point in SE NE, NE KS and NW MO. Here is a look at the forecasted surface map for 7 p.m. Friday evening:
A very warm and moist air mass is forecasted to be in place along and south of this front. Afternoon heating will destabilize the atmosphere and poise the area for Supercell thunderstorms. One must take into account the overnight convection and residual cloud cover, but the dynamics of the system are quite impressive. Here is a look at the 500mb analysisn and Dp's from the GFS and NAM-WRF for 0Z/24:
Thursday Evening Update: Quick look at the 0Z NAM-WRF as the GFS is still initializing and the 0Z time frame is not available as I type this blog entry....the SREF was also used as a guide....models paint a rather ominous picture for Northern MO for Friday afternoon and evening. Lapse rates are approaching 8 to 9C with the potential for some very large hail....The only thing that may be the saving grace for the tor potential is the helicity values in the lower 1-3km of the atmoshphere...if these values change the tornado potential will increase dramatically....will need to watch the surface charts very close tomorrow as well as visible satellite....the ability of overnight convection to clear, sunshine to break out and destabilize the atmoshpere and the position of the warm front will be important factors...remnant outflow boundaries should also be considered from overnight convection ....Dewpoints are forecasted to be in the mid 60's and CAPE values in the 2500 J/KG in NW MO....surface winds are backed which is a plus and overall bulk shear is 60kts Sfc-500mb, coupled with an increasing LLJ of 40kts....as well as the triple point being very close by....hodos look appreciable....challenging forecast that is going to depend on how it all looks tomorrow morning in real time....right now I am liking the NW MO area from St. Joseph to Bethany, MO for a chase target....with initiation in the 21Z time frame and things really ramping up toward 0Z/24......this will be a nowcasting event with mesoanalysis data being scrutinzed heavily as we head into the afternoon hours.....
OLD DISCUSSION:
The storm system in the desert southwest will be ejecting out into the central plains late tonight and into Friday. This storm system will bring the potential of wide spread severe weather, and potentially significant, throughout the central CONUS.
I have not had a chance to look at the model progs in depth and have only skimmed them. ATTM it appears the greatest threat for severe weather including the potential for significant tornadoes will be along the warm front draped from SE NE back through northern MO/southern IA into IL and near the triple point in SE NE, NE KS and NW MO. Here is a look at the forecasted surface map for 7 p.m. Friday evening:
A very warm and moist air mass is forecasted to be in place along and south of this front. Afternoon heating will destabilize the atmosphere and poise the area for Supercell thunderstorms. One must take into account the overnight convection and residual cloud cover, but the dynamics of the system are quite impressive. Here is a look at the 500mb analysisn and Dp's from the GFS and NAM-WRF for 0Z/24:
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