TARGET: Redding, IA by 3 p.m. CDT (Albeit family obligations are going to keep me home)
DISCUSSION:
The below water vapor imagery depicts a large trough and several shortwaves that are going to interact with a front and surface low over the central CONUS on Saturday. One shortwave is visible over northern NM/SE CO with a trailing dryline into the TX panhandle region. Another impulse just coming ashore on the CA coast. The right side of the image shows the mid level low in central NE with another front associated with a surface low over northern MN is evident in the northern portion of SD. The latter is providing the showers we are experiencing in NW MO as I right this blog.
Here is a look at the 0Z/23 surface chart:
Here is the forecasted surface features for Saturday afternoon and evening:
Speed shear dynamics are not lacking with this system but I would like to see some more directional shear at the mid-levels. Here is a look at the NAM and GFS 250mb charts for 0Z/24. The ECMWF is for 12Z/23.
Here is a look at the NAM and GFS 500mb chart for 0Z/24:
Helicity values are appreciable in the target area:
Here is a SKEW-T / Hodo from Redding, IA at 23Z/24:
A strengthening low level jet will also be feeding into the area providing a decent moisture transport regime:
SBCAPE from the NAM and GFS:
The last images are forecasted precip from the 4km WRF for 0Z/24 (small caveat: the precip models have not been doing a very good job of late):
All that being said tomorrow has the conditional threat for a severe weather event with all modes of severe weather possible, albeit, the tornadic threat will be early on in the event. The most likely area to see tornadoes is along the IA/MO border where shear and helicity values will be enhanced.
Any existing outflow boundaries from overnight convection and residual cloud cover will have a drastic impact on tomorrow's threat. Throw in the sun angle for late October and it is imperative for clear skies to be around at peak heating to destabilize the atmosphere. As we saw today in TX, OK and KS, a thin veil of 250mb/300mb clouds and lack of any appreciable forcing will make all of the difference between severe weather and a few severe reports and thundershowers. ~ CS
DISCUSSION:
The below water vapor imagery depicts a large trough and several shortwaves that are going to interact with a front and surface low over the central CONUS on Saturday. One shortwave is visible over northern NM/SE CO with a trailing dryline into the TX panhandle region. Another impulse just coming ashore on the CA coast. The right side of the image shows the mid level low in central NE with another front associated with a surface low over northern MN is evident in the northern portion of SD. The latter is providing the showers we are experiencing in NW MO as I right this blog.
Here is a look at the 0Z/23 surface chart:
Here is the forecasted surface features for Saturday afternoon and evening:
Speed shear dynamics are not lacking with this system but I would like to see some more directional shear at the mid-levels. Here is a look at the NAM and GFS 250mb charts for 0Z/24. The ECMWF is for 12Z/23.
Here is a look at the NAM and GFS 500mb chart for 0Z/24:
Helicity values are appreciable in the target area:
Here is a SKEW-T / Hodo from Redding, IA at 23Z/24:
A strengthening low level jet will also be feeding into the area providing a decent moisture transport regime:
SBCAPE from the NAM and GFS:
The last images are forecasted precip from the 4km WRF for 0Z/24 (small caveat: the precip models have not been doing a very good job of late):
All that being said tomorrow has the conditional threat for a severe weather event with all modes of severe weather possible, albeit, the tornadic threat will be early on in the event. The most likely area to see tornadoes is along the IA/MO border where shear and helicity values will be enhanced.
Any existing outflow boundaries from overnight convection and residual cloud cover will have a drastic impact on tomorrow's threat. Throw in the sun angle for late October and it is imperative for clear skies to be around at peak heating to destabilize the atmosphere. As we saw today in TX, OK and KS, a thin veil of 250mb/300mb clouds and lack of any appreciable forcing will make all of the difference between severe weather and a few severe reports and thundershowers. ~ CS
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