2011 Arctic Air Intrusion / Snow

UPDATE: 01/07/11 0230Z:  The southern stream surface low pressure is going to track further south and not have an impact on our weather.  However, the northern stream is going to provide a storm system that will be impacting our weather in the Sunday through Tuesday time frame.  This will give us a shot at accumulating snowfall across a large portion of Western and Northern MO.  I am still thinking a 3" to 6" snowfall is very possible with this system for the local area.  Albeit, the GFS is forecasting Snowmageddon across NE KS, SE NE and SW IA with over 16" of accumulation.  Not buying into this just yet as these type of snows are very rare for our area.  However, QPF in the aforementioned area is forecasted over 1/2".  Definitely something to keep an eye on as we head into the weekend.  One thing for certain is it is going to get a lot colder next week.  A fresh snow pack to our north will have a big impact on overnight lows and daytime highs.  This will be coldest air this winter season!

Here is a look at the current surface low and forecasted tracks.  Note there is a clipper system providing snow to NE MO and NW IL this morning.  Happy Friday everyone. ~ CS

Current regional NEXRAD view (automatically updates):

OLD DISCUSSION:
The first true arctic air of the season is building in the northern territories and is going to make a dive into the CONUS beginning as early as next week.  A cross polar flow has set up and will continue to tap into Arctic air and drop temperatures across the northern territories.  High temperatures will struggle to reach the 0F mark toward the end of the weekend. 

Here is a look at the current temperatures across the northern territories and the Canadian provinces closer to the CONUS:



The GFS has been advertising very cold temperatures spilling into the CONUS next week.  Some of the model runs have put afternoon high temperatures below 0F across the Midwest.  Albeit, the models have really backed off on the cold air spilling southward the latest model runs. 

Here is a look at the GFS forecasted highs next Wednesday January 12, 2011:

Ok, what about precipitation and winter precipitation.  Well the first shot comes during the middle of the upcoming weekend with a shortwave moving out of the southern plains.  The track of this shortwave will be important to the type of wintry precipitation we get and how much.  As it looks right now I am anticipating as much as 3" to 6" for the local area.  This of course is all subject to change based on the track of the shortwave and available moisture.

Here is a look at the QPF for January 8-10, 2011:

It is going to be something we need to watch as we head toward the end of the work week and into the weekend.  The mild winter we have had thus far looks to come to an abrupt end, we knew it couldn't last forever. ~ CS