Target Area: Grand Island to York, NE (10AM Friday)
Forecast Discussion: UPDATE 10AM 7-3-09 I am still sticking with this target for now. Of course this will probably be adjusted a bit during the day based on mesoanalysis. 500mb flow will be a zonal flow from 30-50knts. This is a mix of the RUC and NAM forecast. A warm front will be on the move from KS moving north to just north of the NE/KS border. This will be the area I will play along and just north of this boundary. Surface winds will be nicely backed in this area as well. Storm motions should be decent with a mainly east movement at 25-30mph. Precipitable water values are 1.5 -2.0 which could promote HP supercell structures. CAPE is forecasted to be 2000-3000 j/kg. EHI in the area of over 6. LCL's under 1000. LI of -7-10 in the area as well. The cap at this time per the 12z runs has become less of a issue but may be just enough to get the instability we are looking for. Storms look to hold off till around 23z as of now. I will be positioning myself in this area by 23z.
Steve 10am
Chase Summary:
Probably a day to pass in my opinion. Low level moisture is wellllll below normal in the warm sector with temps very hot. Thus I very much disagree with the LCL forecast above as you'll likely instead end up with temps near 100 and dewpoints in the low-mid 60s where storms fire in NW KS. Looks like an interted-V sounding damaging wind event to me.
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