Target Area: Oneil to Omaha
Forecast Discussion: Looks like a warm front will run east and west through NE into IA. 500mb winds of 30-40 knts over the area. Slightly backing winds at 850mb with nicely backing winds at the surface. At the surface, a warm front will be positioned from SW Nebraska, N. Central NE and back in to E. Central NE. A surface low will be positioned in West Central Kansas. A dryline will be on the move somewhat through this period and will be positioned near Ainsworth and southward to near Grand Island. EHI of 3 is forecast for the area also with. Cap is becoming a bit of a concern as the models are showing cinh of -100-200. Cape is forecasted to be 2500-3009 j/kg, LCL's of 750 or less. IF storms can fire west of this area, there should be good instability for the storms to work with. West and south of the Ainsworth area, 700mb temps are forecast to be 13-15C which is a definite concern as far as the cap goes. I may position myself closer to the Omaha area as these temps are forecast to be closer to 1oc. The forecasted reflectivity also is picking up on the capping inversion. So as of now, I think I will positoin near Omaha and adjust during the day from there based on current mesonanalysis.
Steve 10pm Thursday
Chase Summary:
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