Monday, June 8, 2009

FCST: KS and OK 6/9/09

Tornado Outlook
Categorical Outlook

Target Area: UPDATE: Going to position near I-35 and 160 south of Wichita, KS due to position of the warm front and outflow boundaries from the on-going convection over SE KS and SW MO.........evaluate models, vis sat and radar trends and may need to adjust our target...but we are in the game....more later as time allows...chasing today with Marcus Diaz, Brandon Sullivan and Scott Tomlinson....Corey and Steve
Appears that we may adjust our initial staging area to near Salina and reevaluate from there. It appears that the warm front may move farther to the north than earlier expected per the 0z GFS run. The NAM still places the front further south but I am trending more toward the GFS on this for now. Salina has been picked also because of the multiple road options also. We will look at the 12z runs in the morning and 15z RUC models also and update from there. Steve 6-9-09 2AM

Initial staging target is Arlington, KS (60 miles NW of Wichita, KS) of course Steve is piloting and we will go where he drives us...LOL...he was looking at Alva, OK to Pratt, KS today......

Forecast Discussion: Detailed discussion in the morning after I have had the chance to look at the model runs in-depth, morning METARS and surface front positions...need to be near the warm front for a chance at a tor....

Chase Summary:

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