SPC SWODY2EDIT: If any overnight convection occurs over the target area....remnant OFB's will need to be watched closely as well tomorrow......storms have fired over south central NE as I write this blog entry......
Target Area: Target 1-Northern Missouri / Target 2-West Central IL (NAM/GFS blend of 0Z runs)--Corey
Forecast Discussion: Going to keep my thoughts brief tonight as it has been a long day....H5 streak of 60 kts forecast to be along and just north of the US 36 corridor...H7 temps and CINH may be an issue again tomorrow, but think there will be enough forcing to erode any cap that exists by late afternoon/early evening with the advancement of a mid level feature and the cold front and a forecasted developing surface low....surface winds are forecast to be SWLY at 10 kts and every so slightly backed over the target area at 0Z/20......Dp's in the 70's over most of the target area....with temps in the 80's...do not think Tdd's will be an issue with surface LCL's forecast to be 250 to 500m....wind profiles are adequate for rotating supercells with bulk shear in the 50kt range....models differ in CAPE values a tad over target #1 (went with a blend of 2000 J/kg) but target #2 is comparable with 3000J/kg...Helicity values are best over NW and North Central MO at 0Z......hopefully storms will fire in front of the advancing cold front and remain discrete early on in the event before they are over run....storm motions are roughly from 280-290 at 30 kts....not bad for NW MO as far as road options go....but anything past US 65 and it gets ugly....I am expecting a linear mess by mid evening as the cold front overtakes any early convection....and yes more rain with PWV forecasted to be in the 1 to 1.5 inch range with locally higher amounts forecasted....
Forecast Discussion: Going to keep my thoughts brief tonight as it has been a long day....H5 streak of 60 kts forecast to be along and just north of the US 36 corridor...H7 temps and CINH may be an issue again tomorrow, but think there will be enough forcing to erode any cap that exists by late afternoon/early evening with the advancement of a mid level feature and the cold front and a forecasted developing surface low....surface winds are forecast to be SWLY at 10 kts and every so slightly backed over the target area at 0Z/20......Dp's in the 70's over most of the target area....with temps in the 80's...do not think Tdd's will be an issue with surface LCL's forecast to be 250 to 500m....wind profiles are adequate for rotating supercells with bulk shear in the 50kt range....models differ in CAPE values a tad over target #1 (went with a blend of 2000 J/kg) but target #2 is comparable with 3000J/kg...Helicity values are best over NW and North Central MO at 0Z......hopefully storms will fire in front of the advancing cold front and remain discrete early on in the event before they are over run....storm motions are roughly from 280-290 at 30 kts....not bad for NW MO as far as road options go....but anything past US 65 and it gets ugly....I am expecting a linear mess by mid evening as the cold front overtakes any early convection....and yes more rain with PWV forecasted to be in the 1 to 1.5 inch range with locally higher amounts forecasted....
Primary Threats: Large Hail and Damaging Winds with an isolated tornado threat with any storms that fire early....
Chase Summary:
Chase Summary:
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