FCST: 8-19-09 MO/IA/KS

Target Area: Southern IA / Northern MO / Eastern KS

Forecast Discussion:

EDIT Tuesday 2315 hrs: Scenario is as before, very complex! Steve and I have looked closely at the latest model runs, satellite and radar images and do not have a good feel on things. The MCS currently over central KS and any residual effects it has over the target area are going to drastically effect tonight's model data. The system has the capability of producing a significant severe weather event close by tomorrow and tomorrow night. One thing is for certain, it is going to rain, and rain a lot. This will not bode well for already swollen creeks, streams and rivers as well as saturated soils (some areas received 10"+ of rain over the weekend! There are several factors we are looking at:

1. Approaching system is very dynamic, nearly spring like and is very capable of producing severe weather;

2. This is 2009 and we cannot count how many systems have been "awesome" looking parameter wise on the day before model runs that did not produce one ounce of severe weather;

3. This is August for goodness sake;

4. We will look closer at the models in the AM to see how well they are handling any on-going convection, as well as radar and satellite data and hopefully be able to pin point things a bit better.

Here are our evening thoughts:

We are eyeing an area triangulated from KSTJ to KTOP to KMCI as a target area. Again, this target is based on this evenings model data and does not take into account any overnight convection data. EHI, CAPE, SRH, STP and may other parameters are maximized in this area ~~~ CS/SP

EDIT Tuesday 1310 hrs: Rather complex scenario is setting up for a possible severe event tomorrow, Wednesday, August 19 across northern MO and southern IA...Steve and I will work on a detailed forecast this evening and share our thoughts on how we think the scenario is going to play out...a lot of parameters to look at and definitely a very difficult forecast ~~~ CS

Chase Summary: