Target Area: Southern IA / Northern MO
Forecast Discussion:
EDIT (11:15 p.m. 8/2/09): I would not be surprised to wake up tomorrow with a moderate risk for northern MO in the SWODY1 SPC forecast strictly based on model parameters......
Overnight forecasted activity, coupled with the potential residual cloud cover, subsidence after the passing of the overnight short wave and warm air aloft moving in afterwards is causing me severe convection forecast issues....will hold off and look at data tomorrow and see if I can get a better handle on things....wind fields, CAPE, Dp's all look ok for a severe event...but I think the CAP is going to be an issue, but it is August......however, it is also 2009.........this could be a sleeper if things play out right......
Chase Summary:
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