Monday, December 21, 2009

FCST: 12/23-25/2009 Winter Wx Event--Central Plains / Upper Midwest

Hmmmmmm.....where is spring at?  This storm has so much potential but just not for the local area!  Sounds like a broken record from the spring of 2009 doesn't it!  Simple facts:

ULL tracks northwest of the local area,
Freeze line stays northwest of the local area until late Thursday;
QPF is unbelievable, literally, for this storm;
We could get some wrap around snow accumulations from the storm late Thursday into Friday,
Possibly a white Christmas with a couple inches on the ground;
It is going to get colder and there will be some decent wind as the storm pulls out to the north and northeast!

Ok...there are my forecast thoughts on the current track of most models!  Now the caveat:  if the ULL track does not follow the model forecasts and shifts a hundred miles or so south we get some decent snows as it will bring the freezing line and heavier precip closer to us!  The storm is entering the sounding network in the Pacific Northwest now.  This will give us some real time data to look at that will solidify the track a "little" bit better.  We are still 3 to 4 days away from this event so all forecasts need to be watched very closely!  The latest model data is filtering in now and I will be looking at it late this evening! ~ CS

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