FCST: 9/10/10 MO/KS

I  have not had a chance to focus on the severe potential for today due to personal and work obligations the last 48 hours.  Thought I would throw up some quick thoughts on the severe potential today and best target area if I were to be chasing.

Target Area: Emporia, KS

Discussion:
A complex forecast is unfolding today as a developing area of surface low pressure is forming in NE KS.  An associated warm front is draped over west central MO back into the MO bootheel at the noon hour.  A cold front runs through the central portion of KS back into OK.  This potent late season storm system that will provide the foci for strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.

The warm front is surging northward and developing a small warm sector this afternoon where temperatures have risen into the 80's and dewpoints have climbed into the upper 60's to low 70's.  Strong to severe thunderstorms should be on-going by 5 p.m. this evening to the southwest of the KC metro area on the Kansas side.  The area along the the warm front and northeast of the low pressure center will be the area with highest tornado potential.  Needless to say surface and satellite observations are going to be key for tornadogenesis today and bagging a late season tornado!

Good luck and safe wishes to my chase partner Steve Polley and the other storm chasers as they get a last of the season chase in!

Summary:

Local Storm Report Data: