TARGET: Cedar Rapids, IA by 20Z/6.
DISCUSSION: A compact and potent late season shortwave (995 mb) is moving across the central plains this afternoon. This storm system will provide the threat of severe thunderstorms across eastern IA, southern MN and western WI later this afternoon and evening.
The storm has plenty of shear to work with, but the rounds of recent cold fronts have scoured out most of the moisture from the area. Couple in the progressive nature of the trough and you get plenty of shear and no moisture!
A 45 to 55 kt low level jet will be working its way into the target area by 0Z.
Currently, warm air advection is ongoing across eastern KS and western MO but even wtih that dewpoints have only recovered into the upper 50's to lower 60's. Forecasted dewpoints had been in the upper 60's to lower 70's. I do not feel these dews are going to be realized over the aforementioned areas based on my current thinking.
CAPE is forecasted to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range by this afternoon which is appreciable for severe weather.
A stout EML is advecting into the region as well and will need the approaching shortwave to provide the needed forcing to oversome the capping inversion. I am anticipating some early, isolated supercells from Des Moines northeastward that will quickly congeal into an MCS and march eastward overnight creating a damaging wind threat.
The early storms will yield any tornado threat in the target area. Helicity values are maximized in these areas and a strong tornado is possible, but not probable in this amateur forecasters opinion. ~ CS
DISCUSSION: A compact and potent late season shortwave (995 mb) is moving across the central plains this afternoon. This storm system will provide the threat of severe thunderstorms across eastern IA, southern MN and western WI later this afternoon and evening.
The storm has plenty of shear to work with, but the rounds of recent cold fronts have scoured out most of the moisture from the area. Couple in the progressive nature of the trough and you get plenty of shear and no moisture!
A 45 to 55 kt low level jet will be working its way into the target area by 0Z.
Currently, warm air advection is ongoing across eastern KS and western MO but even wtih that dewpoints have only recovered into the upper 50's to lower 60's. Forecasted dewpoints had been in the upper 60's to lower 70's. I do not feel these dews are going to be realized over the aforementioned areas based on my current thinking.
CAPE is forecasted to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range by this afternoon which is appreciable for severe weather.
A stout EML is advecting into the region as well and will need the approaching shortwave to provide the needed forcing to oversome the capping inversion. I am anticipating some early, isolated supercells from Des Moines northeastward that will quickly congeal into an MCS and march eastward overnight creating a damaging wind threat.
The early storms will yield any tornado threat in the target area. Helicity values are maximized in these areas and a strong tornado is possible, but not probable in this amateur forecasters opinion. ~ CS
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