FCST: 2/19/10 SNOW NW Missouri

EDIT (0415Z):  Quick look at the RUC and SREF for tomorrow's little weather event has me sticking to the forecast posted earlier.  The temperature profile of the column is going to be the key to the accumulations.  I am thinking a 1" to2", possibly isolated 3" amounts are possible mainly on grassy surfaces. 
Here is the latest surface/radar map:

Here is a look at the SREF liquid precipitation forecast for 3 p.m. Friday as well as the 2M temps:

Notice the location of the freezing line at 3 p.m. Friday.

Old Discussion

An area of low pressure, currently situated over SE CO and NW OK, will bring a round of winter weather to the KS and MO region beginning late Thursday night and through the day on Friday.  Here is a look at the current surface map:

Accumulations will be dependant on the form of precipitation that falls.  Based on information right now, I am looking at 1" to possibly 2" in the local area, mostly on grassy surfaces.    The HPC has us in a slight chance of 4" accumulations for Friday. Here is a look at their probability map:

High temperatures are forecasted to be near or just above freezing during most of the event.  I am expecting limited impacts on travel, but there will be slick spots, especially on bridges and overpasses.

Precipitation along and north of the US 36 corridor should fall in the form of a slushy snow as the vertical temperature profiles will be at or near freezing.  There is an outside chance we may see the precip changeover to rain during the day, but this will be difficult to determine until the event begins and we get real data on the actual temps of the column.  KSTJ model soundings is indicating a rain-snow mix after 1 p.m. CST Friday.  The 850mb freezing line is just north of the KC Metro on the GFS and NAM and the 1000-500 mb thickness line is south of the metro.  Tough thermal profile forecast to say the least, which makes it very difficult in determining precipitation type and associated change over timing.
 

Points south of here, especially south of the MO River may have a more rain than snow from this event as warm advection will be more pronounced in these areas.  Another potentially stronger and more significant winter storm will affect the KS-MO region late into the weekend.  I will put a blog up Friday evening with my thoughts on this storm system.  At this time moderate to heavy snow accumulations are possible north of I-70 during this event. ~ CS