FCST: 2/7-9/2010 SNOW

EDIT (0450Z/9): Forecast verified as Cameron officially received 4" of snow during this event.  I measured 5.5" on the north side of town in Dekalb County.  There were isolated reports of 6" to the south and northwest of town.

EDIT (2045Z/7): Forecast remains on track for a broad area of 2" to 5" accumulations across the local area (less north and more south).  Some areas will receive 5" to 6", especially south and east of Cameron, depending on banding of the snow.  Areas to the south and northeast of the KC Metro have the best chance of seeing 6" plus snowfall accumulations.  NWS in Pleasant Hill has issued a Winter Weather Advisor for the local area through midnight Tuesday morning. ~ CS

EDIT (0030Z/7): 18Z model runs are in and I have taken a look at them.  I still think our 3" to 6" forecast is still on track for the local area, with most of it coming during the day Monday.  The 0Z runs will be out later this evening and I will take a look at them to see if there is much difference from run to run.  Our snow maker will be the disturbance in the northern stream, the southern stream storm does not appear to it will have much affect on our accumulations due to how far south it is tracking.  However, the Christmas eve storm tracked south on the model runs 24 to 36 hours out and we all know what happened there.  No watches or advisories at this time for the local area, but there are winter storm watches to our south and east by one county.  Any minor shift in the storm track will change this.  Keep abreast of the latest information from the NWS in Pleasant Hill as we head into this evening and through the day Sunday!  I will add more thoughts this evening after the 0Z model runs are out! ~ CS

HPC 4" Snow Probabilities--6 p.m. Sunday to 6 p.m. Monday

EDIT (1745Z/6): Current model data takes the southern storm across southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana through the period.  This shifts the heavier snow into central and southern MO, where 6" plus of snow, with some locales receiving close to 8" to 10" of snow.  The northern storm will not be as prolific of a snow maker, but nonetheless, 3" to 6" of snow look possible for the local area.  Any northward shift in this track will put us into the heavier snow accumulations.  Stay abreast of the latest winter weather information from the NWS in Pleasant Hill as these winter storm systems approach.  ~ CS

Here is a look at the current upper low track based on the latest model progs:

Old Discussion and Graphics

A more significant winter storm is poised to affect the area during the late Sunday-Tuesday time frame.  Two shortwaves, one in the northern stream and one in the southern stream, will be the culprit for this round of wintry weather.  Accumulations will depend on how these two shortwaves track, interact and their timing.  At this time, based on the 0Z model runs, the local area could see 3" to 6" of snow....this will need to be watched as the weekend progresses. ~ CS

500mb absolute vorticity forecast map at 6 a.m. Monday morning:

Here are the latest snow fall probabilities from the HPC:

4" probabilities

8" probabilties