Unfortunately, since the system has not come ashore and currently sits just off the coast of California, it looks like we'll have to wait until the 12Z (Saturday, February 20th) suite of model runs are available to get a better handle on the track of the system. Once the raw upper air data becomes available, more definitive forecasts can be ascertained.
At this point in time, I would infer that near or just north of a Kansas City to Chicago axis will fall in the preliminary band of heavier snow accumulations of six (6) or more inches. This is the region most likely to see QPF values of 0.50" to 1.00" in some locations, wherein the most favored synoptic lift coalesces with an entrenched arctic air mass, enumerating water-to-snow ratios on the order of at least 10:1.
The Gulf of Mexico will remain patulous as a robust LLJ transports more moisture northward whilst the shortwave advances across the Southern Plains. This robust WAA is likely to cut down on total snowfall amounts in the southern periphery of the currently progged heavier snowfall axis.
As the system passes off to the east, more cold, Canadian air will filter into the Midwest to usher in a new work week. ~ JR
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